Hello BP,
I am looking for some guidance on a recent project i have been focused on. So i am 95% complete with my first flip and it was an absolute home run! Not bragging, but i got pretty lucky with market tailwind as well as purchase timing. Bought in at $357k @ ~80% LTV, so $76k down put in $135k in repairs(construction loan), all of this bundled for a $423k I/O loan at 9.25%.
Side note that may impact decision making: i am the GP of the deal and have 33% stake, deal is split three ways with other partners (33.3, 33.3, 33.3) Yes, i know this structure was not optimal for me personally, but it was my first deal and i had to make it happen. Also, we cannot 1031 the property because i am in direeee need for cash at this point LOL credit cards are maxxed.
So here come my options:
1)Stick to the plan and sell the house for about $800k (very similar comp under contract at 799k this week in only 4 days, which pretty standard right now) 800k-423k=377k gross profit divided three ways; we each cash out 119k after my management fees on a ~25k cash investment.
2)Cashout Refi and Airbnb the property. The house is in a super hot short term rental area by the beach, so there would be strong consistent demand. Refi would likely get appraised at 700k conservatively (*facepalm at appraisers lol*). Assuming 80% LTV, new loan at 560k-423k to pay off hard money = 137k and we each cash out $45.6k on our 25k initial investments. Our STR market allows for $300 average daily rate conservatively, so at the most conservative estimate of 50% occupancy thats 4500$ gross monthly then subtract about $3000 for mortgage (PITI) and we each have $500 of monthly cashflow as a base case. Some months would be 85-90% occupancy, so $1,550 each as a peak season number. And strong chance of continued appreciation into the 1mil$ valuation range after about 3-5 years pending a downturn.
3)Hybrid model: We airbnb the place for the next 6 months until our one year hard money loan term comes due and create strong cashflow close to the high end of the estimates as it is peak season. And then we sell after the 6 months of airbnb, where we would likely still be able to get the 800k sale price pending any severe downturn.
Thanks for sticking with me through this essay BP and i appreciate all the insight, knowledge and courage this community has given me! please let me know if i have any large errors in my calcs as well. What would you do?