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All Forum Posts by: Tom Goans

Tom Goans has started 30 posts and replied 951 times.

Post: New Bubble

Tom GoansPosted
  • Real Estate Investor
  • Englewood, CO
  • Posts 988
  • Votes 258
Originally posted by Patrick G.:
Originally posted by Tom Goans:
I believe we are in for a much worse crash in the real estate market .......
I do not feel the bubble will become as big as during the 2000s.

Please forgive the cut and paste. I'm a huge math geek and sometimes go right for the numbers.

If I understand you correctly, you feel the market will go up for a little while (~couple years) and then go down to much lower levels then we experienced a year ago (when we 'hit bottom')

I think I 100% agree with you. I don't have any of your experience. I don't have any of your insight on the factors causing the rise and fall of housing. I am speculating off of the Historical Housing Price Index (HPI) compared to Inflation.

When prices started to fall in late 2007/early 2008, they never fell down to the level of inflation.

Because of this belief I am avoiding debt like the plague. I still want to put money into real estate. But I'm trying to start as small as I can and build up.

I really wish some of those doom and gloom housing bubble bust websites were still up.

I am reminded of what my father has continually repeated my entire life, there are more buyers for Chevys than Caddies. He also would remind me to do many small investments as appose to fewer large ones. The reason was I would be less hurt if one or two small investments failed. Plus, there were easier to fix.

Years ago, I got involved in buying older manufactured homes in mobile home parks. It takes very little investment money, and the rental pool is huge.

For example, I owned 20 homes in the same park. My investment was roughly $2500 per home. I owned the homes free and clear. Each home rented for $550 monthly. Do the math. A very fast return on my capital and a fantastic return on the investment with very low risk.

The homes were 3-bedroom 2-bath. I based the rent on what the rent would be for a low to moderate 1-bedroom apartment. This set up my marketing to be directed to pull apartment renters into my properties. Most of the time, a home would be vacant for 1 week or less. As soon as the Thrifty Nickel hit the stands, the home would be rented in a day or two.

Perhaps this will give you an idea of a low-cost investment for your portfolio.

Post: New Bubble

Tom GoansPosted
  • Real Estate Investor
  • Englewood, CO
  • Posts 988
  • Votes 258
Originally posted by Matthew Rutledge:
Originally posted by Tom Goans:
The old system of lending has a huge list of flaws. The new one with the larger down payment does not address the skeletons in the closet that are the real reason why many people default.

Curious if you can expand on what you think those reasons are. I know a few people who have defaulted. The reasons they gave me were rather varied, and I assume only partially true.

Thank you
-Matt

Matt,

I have been a lender since the 1960s. My grandfather and father taught me to have conversations with the potential borrower and learn what makes them tick and the plans they have. What are their hobbies and aspirations? Personally, I look to see how new the automobile(s) is, if they are wearing designer clothes, and if they wear jewelry. Today, I include the type of cell phone they own. Credit reports and loan applications do not do this ... at my last check.

I am not aware of any mainstream lenders making any determination or factoring in the rising cost of living or cost of real estate ownership. The big-ticket items are insurance and taxes. How many properties have deferred maintenance?

A simple answer as to why most people default on their loans is money. They do not make enough to handle all of the burdens. They have been too extended from the moment they signed the papers.

The cause of many defaults rests on the lenders themselves. Here is an example why I say this. I had a large family buying a home from me. The husband was a truck driver. Nearly every year, he would be laid off for 2-3 months during the winter. Instead of me foreclosing, I let them skip paying me those months. No big deal for me. They do not get title to the property until the loan and all the interest is paid in full. If I had foreclosed, it would have taken months, cost me a lot of money and time, and what would I have accomplished in the end. Nothing. By the way, this family now owns their home Free and Clear. Everyone wins.

Post: New Bubble

Tom GoansPosted
  • Real Estate Investor
  • Englewood, CO
  • Posts 988
  • Votes 258

Mark,

One of the skeletons in the closet is the studies the past several years and even recent studies that indicate household and personal income buying power is equal of that of a decade alone. Buying power is not keeping up with present-day inflation. Plus, many personal and household budgets are disregarding the huge increases in cost of living on the horizon.

Another skeleton is a couple of months ago; the US government released a report showing the number of people in the workforce is equal to that of 1992.

How many people are now working for less than they were in 2006? How many more will be during the next 5 years?

Post: New Bubble

Tom GoansPosted
  • Real Estate Investor
  • Englewood, CO
  • Posts 988
  • Votes 258
Originally posted by Emilio R:
Tom Goans I'm wondering if you could give some examples of "amateurs pushing prices up and manufacturing demand". I've read that bigger investors have also played apart in pushing these prices up. Hedge funds buying large amounts of foreclosures. And are you talking in the Denver area or other parts as well? Were the people you mentioned in your examples amateurs?

You are absolutely correct, there are many players. I have seen many old, established developers and builders make the same mistake. Many time, greed are the blinders they wear. They have no concern for the community they are developing.

I could not tell you how many times a real estate agent claimed the property was "cheap", going to appreciate, and was a terrific buy.

Presently, the studies I am reading are suggesting the largest sector of present-day real estate buyers have been for more than a year and remains investors. The studies are conducted all over the U.S.

As for hedge funds, keep in mind many of them lost their shirts by holding real estate securites and properties that within a few days was worth a fraction of their original investment.

Post: New Bubble

Tom GoansPosted
  • Real Estate Investor
  • Englewood, CO
  • Posts 988
  • Votes 258
Originally posted by Lynn M.:
Don't you think the current financing policies, much larger down payment requirements for investors, larger reserve requirements, strict documentation, along with a much larger percentage of all cash sales, will mitigate some of the risk you're seeing? People who invest a large percentage of their own money are much less likely to walk away than those people who used to get mortgages for 125% of appraised value back when you just needed a pulse to get a loan. I would be much more concerned if banks were once again lending to unqualified morons with 0-down and no-doc loans.

No.

I have provided the purchase financing for the properties I owned and sold since the 1960s. Many I have sold for NO DOWN. These loans are just as sound, if not more so.

I never obtain a credit report, never ask the borrower (or tenant) to fill out an application, and yet, my loan portfolio goes with a delinquency or default for many years. My father has the same experience as did my grandfather.

I can have an email conversation with you and can tell if you are going to be a good payer or not, including rent.

Let me give you an example. In November, one of my borrowers sent an email stating the IRS sezied their bank account and that they had no money to make a payment. I asked if they still had an interest in buying. The answer was yes. I asked if I restructure the loan to have weekly payment (when they got paid) would help. They said yes. So, this is what I did. They have been early with their payments ever since. Most lenders would have gone through the huge expense of foreclosure, had huge costs with continued holding costs, an unpredictable history ... and here I am making deposits and the borrower is happy as can be. Everyone wins.

The old system of lending has a huge list of flaws. The new one with the larger down payment does not address the skeletons in the closet that are the real reason why many people default. Most importantly, mainstream lenders continue to allow people to become over-extended the moment they sign the paperwork and buy properties that may not actually be worth the loan amount, much less the purchase price.

Post: When to deed property to newly created LLC?

Tom GoansPosted
  • Real Estate Investor
  • Englewood, CO
  • Posts 988
  • Votes 258

Your question would be extremely difficult to address with knowing your entire financial picture, especially your future plans.

You should really ask this question to a financial planner or CPA. It will be well worth the cost. In fact, the cost could be paid for instantly should you make a wrong move.

Sturcturing should consider the present day tax burden, but also include future tax burden, retirement, and heirs.

Some believe a Trust is a better method for financial planning. Land trusts is talked about a lot.

Are you aware many who have accumulated large amounts of money use trusts? You have probably heard of children trusts.

There are way to many considerations to pose this critical issue to a blog, in my opinion.

Post: I want to sell a private mortgage note

Tom GoansPosted
  • Real Estate Investor
  • Englewood, CO
  • Posts 988
  • Votes 258

I have financed properties I owned and sold since the 1960s. Additionally, I have bought and sold a huge number of real estate securities over the years. Jon is correct, many times somewhere in the security documents will be a clause allowing to to obtain a credit report. If not, there are ways to play dirty, but I don't recommend this. A content borrower is a good payer.

To expand the scope, have you had a conversation with a financial advisor concerning selling the loan and what it would mean to your finances? At the very least would be taxes. There may be better ways for you to work with this income stream. After all, it is an income stream that you can borrow against or pass on to your heirs.

As a note buyer, the value of a property as suggested by an appraisal or similar method does not mean much to me. There are a lot of lenders with rooms full of thick folders containing appraisals on properties the banks now own. This is why most note buyers discount the amount they will pay so greatly. They are factoring in the possibility they will own the property some day.

Your $420,000 loan would probably bring only about $200,000 if you sell it. You can sell an income stream a year at a time and suffer much less loss.

Post: Next housing bubble:Rental sector?

Tom GoansPosted
  • Real Estate Investor
  • Englewood, CO
  • Posts 988
  • Votes 258

I predict another bubble that will include the residential rental market. One occurs every decade. This coming one may be a bit harder to survive. It all depends upon your financial position in the property and market. If you are able to out compete your competitors is a huge factor. If your property is more desirable is another huge factor.

Post: Mobile Home Lot sizes

Tom GoansPosted
  • Real Estate Investor
  • Englewood, CO
  • Posts 988
  • Votes 258

If I may offer an idea should this be a rental property, years ago I stopped doing a typical lease and converted to a Lease with Option to Buy. This was an excellent move with countless advantages for numerous reasons.

Post: New Bubble

Tom GoansPosted
  • Real Estate Investor
  • Englewood, CO
  • Posts 988
  • Votes 258

No, this property has been around since the 1980s. It is on the south side off of the Circle/Lake exit adjacent to I-25.

You brought up another excellent example of hype. I believe the hotel you are thinking of is the Raddison on the north side of town. The contractor is now the proud owner of that unfinished property. The company has been unsuccessfully trying to sell it for several years.

About a half mile east of that property, a developer I personally know lost that 158-acre property. It was sold at auction in March and has been sitting idle since 2008. She was planning a huge multi-use development that included retail, offices, and condos. This development wiped her out. She lost everything and all the properties she owned and had built in her lifetime, including her personal residence.

A good lesson learned by those who study the circumstances.