Thanks @Joe Villeneuve and all for the responses
I like the flip strategy but this flip has a very limited spread and a better rent-ability, and I'm reluctant to lose that as passive income appeals to me. MLS deals in the area are limited as the market is hotting up rapidly. Cash buyers are getting the fixer uppers that won't qualify for conventional finance and I have a way to go to build a network or team.
My main goals are to get in the game, build experience and contacts, and do it WITHOUT losing money. I'd consider that a win. My best case is to also obtain cash flow while doing it.
LOAN SITUATION UPDATE - I've worked with a great agent within Quicken to come up with a strategy. It's not ideal though. My service-industry job is in large part tip-based, which is unfortunate as Quicken (and other lenders) will not count them for Debt To Income (DTI) purposes for 2 years even if accounted for in my W2 paycheck. This now means my down payment needs to be 43% of the loan (62K) to meet criteria. With closing costs and rehab I'd have almost 81k in the deal. Then holding costs til rented (which would be low) which i can meet with my w2 earnings.
The good news is I can re-fi in 6 months at the new ARV of 180K according to reliable comps (135K with new 75% loan) and pull 50K back out. Cash flows at $150, I would have 34K tied up in it and $10k equity.
It's a lot of exposure, just about meets cashflow and reduces my working capital, but it does get me in the game and increases my on paper earnings for a future loan.
Is this too risky? All or bust? I kinda think so, but the numbers do stack up.
The alternative is to just buy as owner occupier and flip it in a year for a reasonable return. But then I wouldn't be able to start my investor career