Hello Joe,
I don't disagree with what you are saying but I am not under the impression this level of accelerated growth is sustainable over the long run. There will be pauses and even pull backs. I actually see this recent growth a "catch up" effect from the Dallas market not really doing much when the other markets did. To give you an example, I purchased my townhome in December of 2002. For the benefit of this discussion, it was new construction about 2000 sq ft and cost about $150k. For the ten years I lived there, the value of it moved only $5k either up or down. It really did nothing while we would continue to hear East and West coast properties moving up 8% per year. When the recession happened, the East and West coast properties moved down 8% + per year. Dallas subsequently did not get much of a hit after 2008.
A rule of thumb is over the long run property values increase about 3% per year. Over the past 4 years, the value of my townhome has increased to around $250k. If you take the 3% year over year calculation, over the 14 years I have owned that property, it comes out to be around $250k. So in my mind, I see it as just catching up with where it should be. I don't believe we are in a bubble because it is substantiated by growth but I do not believe this type of growth we have seen in past 4 years is sustainable.
That being said, the thing that goes through my mind is how long will we continue to see this growth before a pullback occurs. The other thing I ask myself is how much higher do I see my townhome going in value. There are already cracks in the dam regarding the Dallas valuations. An example of this is regarding the Toyota business you refer to. In one of my real estate classes, I had a California Toyota transplant that moved here as part of the first wave. She was saying that quite a few folks from Toyota have gotten concerned about what the valuations were originally when they made the deal to move to Plano versus what they are now. In addition, approximately 1,000 of the 4,000 jobs are coming from their Kentucky or Tennessee plant. (I don't remember which state) The folks at that plant have stated that they will actually be worse off with the increased valuations than if they would have just stayed there.
When I look at what I have done to this point, I have used leverage to purchase the 4 rentals I currently have. A question I have been asking myself is what is the difference between collecting rent from one of those properties and continuing to carry a small mortgage on that property along with paying a mortgage on my primary residence versus selling that one rental and paying off my primary residence. In the end, the rent loss would be offset by the mortgage I don't have to pay on my primary residence. The down side is I would only have one property that would potentially increase in value and can write off. The upside is I would also be more stable when, and if a slowdown occurs, as well as having one less property to manage or generating expenses.
In the end, I would still retain 3 rentals to go through whatever the future holds. The worse case scenario would be if I had to sell them, I would still be left without a mortgage on my primary residence. It is a similar strategy used when buying stocks. When you get a sharp run up from the price, taking some off the table to prepare for the next opportunity or to help survive the next down turn.
I am all about leveraging but doing it intelligently and not blindly. I have seen too many friends get burned that way. I do hope this growth continues as my other 3 properties will continue to benefit. There is a sugar high many are experiencing right now. However, if it does sour, it will be good to know I have some additional stability. I don't need the money but that could change with the loss of a job which can be unpredictable.
I have not decided one way or the other but definitely appreciate everyones insight!