All Forum Posts by: Michael Wooldridge

 That makes sense to me. Markets ar definitely slower just not a lot out there so prices are not holding strong but not dropping much so to speak. Generally obviously a few big markets got hit nationally.

On the rental side - people seem more cautious - so those not setup right I’m not surprised are hurting. On the flip side on a brand new property, I’m still seeing last minute rentals and long ones - and as reviews have been coming in bookings are jumping quick. So I feel like the market is there just selective.

Will it hold? Right now my concern there is china/fed. CHina Covid impact no supply chain has not been felt yet. Will be interesting. 

real competition though? Or people who "heard" you could jump in and make easy money on STR? It's amazing how many times people cut corners like not having beach chairs when near a beach, not having a high chair / pack in-play for family oriented homes or even just adding snacks. Not saying it's as simple as that but to your point around you managing ahead of time, strategy does matter.

 @Carlos Ptriawan what you are seeing is mostly what I’m seeing. The deals are slight adjustments but for the most part prices are flat or a few % points down locally for me (nationally is closer to 8% or so). Volume is way down as expected but inventory is flat.

@John Carbone it's funny but my STR are doing very well even brand new ones in FL. I would have been happy with less than what I'm achieving (expected a downturn) but just not seeing it yet. Which is a pleasant surprise. That said I wouldn't call it a blue chips market but more like upper middle class markets. Which has been fairly stable and still a lot of cash on hand.

That said the next 6 months will be telling. So many variables with Covid in china (ukraine/russia is silent in news these days funny enough) and other global levers that could hurt us. I’m expecting inflation to slow about March/April as housing will be at their peaks. I’m curious what happens when the markets see that in the inflation numbers. 

So been busy having a kid this month. Things settling into my “new norm” and finally looking at markets again. 

Things seem to be pretty much on track from what we were saying Sept. 50% less volume, low inventory, outside of select markets (or $2mill+) home values are flat.

On the job front layoffs continue but the one thing people should keep in mind is companies are annoying layoffs say 15-20% but many of them are only half that on elimination and the other half is restructuring too cheaper labor markets or lower cost employees. 

Not pretty but not bad and the ball continues to roll along….

 Must have imagined Jackson hole the last 2 years then 😂

Well your income tax doesn't help. That's for sure.

I'm a skier and I know you have skiing but frankly your vertical is like the Poconos (which I use for my daily turns).  I'm not saying it's not worth while but if the boom in SLC had started ab it later I would 100% own there for the mountains. MN doesn't have that allure or the national parks. But I get your point. 

The dakotas to me never had the weird issues Wyoming/Montana bring. Frankly Montana could be incredibly attractive for growth but the state doesn't want it. The Dakotas might not have said no but they sure ash ell haven't done anything to show they want relocations. 

Anyway I know Idaho will continue to be strong growth. And Atlanta, FL, Carolinas will continue to grow. but I will definitely be watchign for the next state to step up and attract development (business and residential). I do think it's the midwest state just not sure who. 

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Chris John:

@James Hamling

"This may be a bit out there of a prediction, let's call it my "Thesis",
but I think we are seeing the birth of the MidWest dominance."

I've seen quite a few things in my lifetime that I NEVER thought I'd see, but this one would be up towards the top, for sure.  I mean, are you saying that people will flood out of California, Texas, and Florida and head to Cleveland or something?

 Population count does not = "dominance".    I was not talking about density of population, I am talking about stronger "dominant" markets. For a long time CA held as "the" place for many things. We are in the twilight of that "dominance". 

The midwest is holding as a very strong market, the coasts are showing there volatility and really, what is the basis anymore? Tech industries are migrating, just look at Atlanta, TN and others rapidly gobbling up tech sectors. How about the big changes in Michigan, and again, mass influx of tech sectors. 

It's as if many sectors realized "hey, we don't HAVE to be stuck to this location, we can move around" and are now looking for places that are most attractive. CA and NY, how expensive is it to locate and operate from there vs, say a Cleveland? And when many workers are remote, you don't have to be in CA to have a CA engineer do you. 

FL has long been a boom-bust market, nothing new there so no point addressing it. TX 'explosion" had as much to do with it's affordability last while as it did it's politics. That affordability is now gone, TX is nowhere near as "cheap" as it was just a few short years ago. 

Yes, Ohio is arguably "the" affordable market in US, and with tons of potential. TN is on a growth clip, MI is redefining itself, SD, WI, IA, on and on, in the world of remote working people are finding more and more they can live where it's NICE, cheap, comfortable, clean air, WATER heck how about access to water. What will $750k buy you in San Diego, ok, now what will $750k buy you in SD? yeah, it's a MASSIVE difference, not to mention NO income taxes vs sky high, who doesn't like more $ in there pocket? 

I get it, CA has a beach. Guess what, that only holds so much value. Especially when the beach is also a hobo-camp and you gotta play doge-the-needle to enjoy it. 

Maybe better defined "fly-over-country", because I would say the entire mid-section of country, not just the hard-fast midwest states but yes primarily those with a few added such as TX. West/East coast will hold there mass populations but the wealth, the WORKING wealth, THAT I see migrating out to places worth living in, with a much better quality of life, SECURITY of life. 

Again, I know this is out there, I said this is out there, but it seems to be the way things are going as more and more are engaging in this thought path. Remote working has enabled this opportunity. 

 That's sort of the point though. I think FL will remain strong but it's near the peak as well. TX to your point has hit an affordability limit.

Atlanta has been grabbing a lot and still has room affordability wise but they are getting close. TN has potential but Nashville has shot through the roof - further development is needed. Carolinas have also gone up a lot.

There room for 2 states or so to hit hard at attracting those relocations but many of them will need some development work and incentives. Idaho, Atlanta/Georgia can't take it all. TX has hit an affordability limit. So the question is which state is going to push the way ATlanta and Dallas have ?  The city/state that does that will be a very big grwoth market.  I guess the Dakotas, WI, even MI (lot of the switch has been manufacturing over tech). Cleveland has picked up a few things but it's not been nuts growth wise. 

Kentucky, Tenn, Kansas all seem like perfect targets for me to growth not as much work needed as Arkansas and MO would be and not as cold as the Dakotas / WI. Ideal markets to me to approach wooing business the way dallas/plano have.

 Yeah, I think in coming years it may be a lot of "Oh, I never thought of that place, huh, what's going on out in ____". Think Nebraska, lol, who ever thinks of Nebraska, right. But, it has land gallore, internet just fine, and affordable as all heck. 

Wyoming and Montana, EPIC beautiful places but, big $ and big power focused on holding that land and keeping things as are. Ranchers have 0 interest in seeing Wyoming with 7m population. So places like that will be a bit different i think, where powers are focused on keeping it small. 

But yeah, lot's of places almost nobody thinks about that $400k is a McMansion today, and they have great internet, safe schools, no traffic, and Amazon. Lol, gotta have Amazon. 

Huh.... Maybe that's a metric to consider, Amazons coverage areas of low cost locations with good internet and high quality of life...... Ok, maybe I need to shut-up here and stop broadcasting this, lol. 

 GREAT-GOUGA-MOUGA! How many Amazon fulfilment centers would you guess are in IA? Yeah, I'd also guess like 2. WOW were we wrong! 

 Wow thats shocking. Even Idaho only has 4. A lot of them close together, wonder why and it looks like they have Nebraska covered with some of those so perhaps that is why. 

 As far as I understand not much Amazon doesnt' cover. I agree with you on Wyoming/Montana. Otherwise those would be prime targets people would put up with the winters.

So there are data points out there that track package delivers (global not Amazon but everything). Telecomm actually uses that data to predict their own coverage models because as the trends in deliveries change they can use that to predict population growth.

And thats where I feel like the states/cities need to go after it because of the internet (also 5g opens up solutions there also). Even Nebraska is a bit interesting because of the COL. And thats the thing Florida has the beaches and no winters, SLC had the mountains. States like Nebraska, TN, Kanasas all have cheap COL. Idaho as well and it's been growing fast. KN and TN and Nebraska all prime for growth but they need to put in the work (little bit of infrastructure) and marketing. 

 Looks like we were saying the same thing same time ( we don't wholly disagree :) ). 

I know MN has done well but I question how much of the population will head there not only due to winters but if you like winters you still don't get the mountain fun that somewhere like Oregon or Idaho might have.

Tennessee to me seems ripe if they can devleop some area cost effectively not too far from Nashville but outside the price points people are playing. Kentucky is obviously next door and to me would require attracting people also but seems ideal. Kansas is another one. I know they get some cold winters but not usually quite as long as MN.

One thing I'm with you on is these cities should look at Dallas and Atlanta in particular and try and pull the same approach. 

As to remote work I work in tech and sit with the c-suite a lot - particular around global talent (hence all my comments on labor markets). All those companies talking about getting back into the office are also closing leases left and right. Besides the fact that they know the younger generation won't put up with the full time back in work approach. They also know they save tons of money, prodcutivity is actually up, the only argument against it is collaboration/innovation. but it's workable just require some changes. So they might be saying they want people back in office but meanwhile closes leases where they can. Regardless of the employee side the businesses are embracing it they just can't get rid of the properties quickly enough.

Remote work full time is about double what it was pre-pandemic. So it's definitely here to stay. So what cities/states will be the next Georgia, TX, even FL? Affordability plays a role which is why I think Idaho will continue to grow for sure (it has been) and TN/Kentucky seem ripe to me. 

 That's sort of the point though. I think FL will remain strong but it's near the peak as well. TX to your point has hit an affordability limit.

Atlanta has been grabbing a lot and still has room affordability wise but they are getting close. TN has potential but Nashville has shot through the roof - further development is needed. Carolinas have also gone up a lot.

There room for 2 states or so to hit hard at attracting those relocations but many of them will need some development work and incentives. Idaho, Atlanta/Georgia can't take it all. TX has hit an affordability limit. So the question is which state is going to push the way ATlanta and Dallas have ?  The city/state that does that will be a very big grwoth market.  I guess the Dakotas, WI, even MI (lot of the switch has been manufacturing over tech). Cleveland has picked up a few things but it's not been nuts growth wise. 

Kentucky, Tenn, Kansas all seem like perfect targets for me to growth not as much work needed as Arkansas and MO would be and not as cold as the Dakotas / WI. Ideal markets to me to approach wooing business the way dallas/plano have.