Ok here is a real world example of something I'm interested in. 2315 Colonial Court South, League City, just listed on MLS. Listed at $120k, I'd guess ARV around $175k give or take. I know this area well And I live pretty close. Good school district, convenient to the big employment centers in the area, well kept neighborhood for the most part and a low(ish) tax rate for the area of 2.375%. After rehab, would rent somewhere around $1650 for buy-and-hold. I get an NOI of around $650/month - I included 8% vacancy, 10% maintenance, 5% capex, $4k/yr taxes, 10% PM fee (of gross rent), $1750/yr insurance and a small HOA $150/yr.
So before I even analyze purchase price, rehab and finance costs, I know $650/month NOI is basically cash flow neutral to negative after considering financing but the equity stake looks great to me. Let's assume for sake of argument you put it under contract for $110k and everything from inspection is cosmetic, you may put $15k into rehab and be all in for $125k plus any financing costs. At an ARV of 175k, it looks like a potentially sweet deal either as a flip or as an equity play.
How far off the mark am I? I’m writing this on my phone so I couldn’t include the detailed analysis.
Final note - I’ve listened to a quite a few podcasts and I’m learning some investors do not want excessive cash flow for tax purposes. In my situation, I don’t necessarily want more taxable income right now, I want equity for future 1031 exchanges into cash flowing properties for income in early retirement.