@David Gauger one challenge with a rent estimator like air dna is that their data is often based on bookings/vacancies that occurred months ago, and the market today is COMPLETELY different than it was several months ago.
Specifically, there has been recent data showing that the STR market is completely over-saturated with supply, and most indicators show that we're in recession--which means that demand will likely decrease substantially (or is already decreasing)...it sounds like a perfect storm of excess supply and diminishing demand. This is particularly true for tourism-dependent STRs (tourism-dependent markets tend to get hit hardest in recession, because recreational travel is often the first thing people cut from their budget in a tough economy).
To make things even more complicated, Air Bnb recently changed their platform significantly to focus on A+ top-end, highly unique properties (think: luxury waterfront treehouses). These types of listings are now getting promoted more, while more average listings (like a regular house or condo) are getting pushed down in search results.
(These issues have been discussed on a variety of recent BP podcasts, and probably also in the forums if you want to read up).
So, to answer your question: even if air dna was accurate several months ago, it might not be accurate today, because the market is shifting so quickly and their data might be based on market dynamics that don't exist anymore. Because of all this, if I were looking at STRs, I'd be extremely conservative with STR financial models right now--for instance, I'd want to include worst-case scenarios (like unprecedented vacancy) in my model, and I'd want to have multiple viable exit strategies on the table.
Good luck out there!
