All Forum Posts by: Michael Carbonare

You're preaching to the choir, Mohammed.  This the type of market that an aspiring looks at in the rear view mirror a year from now and shakes their head with regret.  Much like I do with bitcoin when it was $5.  LOL

@Brooke Roundy  You are correct.  There are a variety of strategies you can apply, depending upon your preferences, the seller's needs, and the numbers in the deal.  Over my 30 years investing I have invested using a variety of lease options to control and/or buy properties.  Long term via a sandwich lease; short term via Cooperative Assignments.  Done correctly, both can provide a solution for the seller and profits for you.

 LOL, Joe.  I think the student loans forgiveness fiasco started an avalanche down a very slippery slope.

𝐒𝐭𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐰𝐚𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐭𝐡𝐞 “𝐫𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭 𝐭𝐢𝐦𝐞” 𝐭𝐨 𝐠𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐨 𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐥 𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐞? 𝐇𝐞𝐫𝐞 𝐢𝐭 𝐢𝐬:

𝐈𝐧 𝐉𝐮𝐧𝐞 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟒, 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝟔 𝐨𝐟 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝟓𝟎 largest U.S. metro areas had housing inventory above pre-pandemic levels.

𝐈𝐧 𝐉𝐮𝐧𝐞 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟓, 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐧𝐮𝐦𝐛𝐞𝐫 𝐣𝐮𝐦𝐩𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝟐𝟎 𝐨𝐮𝐭 𝐨𝐟 𝟓𝟎.

This isn’t just data. 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐨𝐩𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐮𝐧𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐬𝐡𝐢𝐟𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐢𝐧 𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐥 𝐭𝐢𝐦𝐞.

Markets like Austin, Denver, and Memphis now have significantly more homes available than they did in 2019, creating real chances for creative investors who know how to move when others hesitate and dawdle.

More inventory = less competition

Less competition = more negotiating power

More negotiating power = better deals for you

If you're still sitting on the sidelines, ask yourself:  what exactly are you waiting for?  

Everyone’s sounding the alarm about Florida’s real estate slowdown. But take a closer look: https://shorturl.at/GZDCB
Nevada inventory up 63%
North Carolina, Colorado, Arizona, Virginia, all seeing 40%+ increases.
This isn’t just a Florida story, it’s a shift happening coast to coast.
Is this a warning sign... or a window of opportunity for creative investors?
More listings. More motivated sellers. More creative deal potential.

Question is. . .are you ready to move, or still stuck in analysis paralysis quicksand?  Waiting for the "right time"?  This might be it.

 Yeah, you caught me. . .

𝐓𝐨𝐝𝐚𝐲, 𝐚𝐧 𝐚𝐬𝐭𝐨𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝟖𝟒% 𝐨𝐟 𝐀𝐦𝐞𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐧𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐰 𝐬𝐚𝐲 𝐢𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐚 𝐛𝐚𝐝 𝐭𝐢𝐦𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐮𝐲 𝐚 𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐬𝐞 𝐚𝐬 𝐚 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭.

This is the most pessimistic Americans have ever been about housing, and is primarily a function of the sky-high Mortgage Payment/Income ratio.  As a result of this negative sentiment and historical lack of affordability, U.S. homebuyer demand is down at the lowest level in decades. In comparison to pre-pandemic norms:

Existing sales are down 25%

Pending sales are down 31%

Mtg applications to buy are down 38%

Worth repeating what I have said previously: interest rates aren't the problem, as I hear so many shouting. 𝐈𝐭'𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐬𝐭 𝐨𝐟 𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐠. It needs to drop 30% to make buyers come off the sidelines. Be careful what you wish for. . .if rates drop considerably, I'm talking down to sub 5%, the motivated buyers come out of the woodwork and begin again throwing stupid money at sellers who are again raising prices to record highs.

I don't know the answer or solution. I'm hoping someone wiser will come along and reveal the secret sauce.

Ben, interest rates are not the problem.  They're hanging around 7% for some time now.  The 50 year average of the 30 year fixed rate mortgage is 7.75%.  Problem is the 3% rates of yesteryear is now the line in the sand.  Those rates were artificially kept low for political purposes.  And as is always the case, when the politicians stir the pot the end result is FUBAR.
Then the Fed decided to raise rates, in large part to bring down housing prices.  In theory, a smart move.  Surprise!  Housing prices continued to soar despite a more than doubling of interest rates.
Now, everyone is hankering for lower rates.  What do you think will happen to the price of housing if rates hit 6% or less?  Another spike in already unaffordable prices.  Buyers will think they got a steal of a financing deal at 5.5%.  Yeah, but the cost of that house shot up another 10%.  Damned if you do, damned if you don't.  I don't know what the solution is other than moving to Italy and having aperitivos every afternoon at the neighborhood cafe.

𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐲 𝐢𝐬 𝐜𝐥𝐢𝐦𝐛𝐢𝐧𝐠 — 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐰𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐝𝐨𝐞𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐲 𝐦𝐞𝐚𝐧 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐬?

This chart tracks the monthly supply of new single-family homes in the U.S. And yes… we’re back near 2008-level inventory.

Most new investors will see this and freeze.

The savvy will see this and make moves.

"𝐁𝐚𝐝 𝐧𝐞𝐰𝐬" 𝐢𝐬 𝐬𝐨𝐦𝐞𝐭𝐢𝐦𝐞𝐬 𝐠𝐨𝐨𝐝 𝐧𝐞𝐰𝐬 𝐢𝐟 𝐲𝐨𝐮 𝐭𝐚𝐤𝐞 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐠𝐞 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐜𝐭.

High supply doesn’t mean disaster. It means negotiating power, creative deals, and a prime window for those who know how to help builders, sellers, and buyers stuck in this limbo.

I'm curious. . .what do you think this signals for the next 6–12 months?

How are you adjusting your buying or exit strategies?

@Michael K Gallagher  I speak from my own personal Paralysis of Analysis rabbit hole. 
30 years ago when the internet wasn't around, when social media didn't exist, I still managed to waste three years in the "studying" phase.  Always had an excuse for not exiting my comfort zone.  What forced me into action was a cross country move without a job or a plan, but with a wife and daughter.  It was sink or swim time for me.
I think if I was starting now with all the (mis)information available online, I'd end up on the floor in the fetal position filling out an employment application for the Post Office. LOL