All Forum Posts by: Michael Carbonare

@Ken M.  The Clinton-Carville reference was a dead giveaway, I gather.  LOL

Like Doug said, there isn't a one, sure fire way to finding don't wanters.  My thinking on marketing is "all marketing is good until proven otherwise".  So I'm always changing up my marketing, tracking the results and changing as necessary.  I'm a fan of text marketing since everyone has their phone glued to their hands 24/7.  Expired listings can be gold if you have access to them and you're quick on the draw.

Jay, I agree to some extent.  Yes, working for yourself has pros and cons, to be sure.  If I'm punching a time clock and I sneak off to the break room, yes, I'm still on the clock even though I'm goofing off.  If I'm a solopreneur and head on over to Happy Hour, well, I'm not making money or growing my business.  So, yeah, definitely not free of obligations and being self employed isn't for all.  Discipline is a must and, in my case, a wife who I fear.  LOL

Do you think lower rates would bring buyers back quickly, or will affordability still be the bigger barrier?  I suspect these delusional sellers will be quick to increase their asking prices the moment rates fall and they see a hint of interest from prospective buyers.

https://wolfstreet.com/2025/09/11/cpi-inflation-dishes-up-an...

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐃𝐢𝐥𝐞𝐦𝐦𝐚

Inflation, especially in “core services”, (housing costs, medical, insurance, etc.), is running well above the Fed’s comfort zone. Over 4% annualized in recent months.

At the same time, the labor market is cooling. Job growth is slowing; there are signals that wage pressures may begin to ease. “Cooling” but not crashing.

Despite inflation high, many expect the Fed to lower interest rates, potentially due to concerns about economic growth, political pressure, or because they judge inflation might begin to come down on its own. But lowering rates too soon risks stoking inflation further.

On top of that, the Fed has tools like quantitative tightening, (QT), which can theoretically work in opposite directions: cutting short-term rates vs. reducing liquidity via balance sheet shrinkage.

Inflation high: pressure to keep rates up; economy softening: pressure to ease rates. The Fed is squeezed.

𝐖𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐝𝐨𝐞𝐬 𝐟𝐫𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐨𝐦 𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐲 𝐥𝐨𝐨𝐤 𝐥𝐢𝐤𝐞 𝐰𝐡𝐞𝐧 𝐲𝐨𝐮 𝐬𝐭𝐨𝐩 𝐰𝐚𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐫𝐭 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠?

For me, it's meant:

No alarm clocks
Working from anywhere
Unlimited time with family (yes, even the 𝗈̶𝗎̶𝗍̶𝗅̶𝖺̶𝗐̶𝗌̶, I mean, in-laws)
Being present as a dad and husband

If you’ve been stuck in analysis paralysis, waiting for that “perfect time” here’s your reality check:
Spiking inventory
Housing sales at 20 year lows
Price reductions everywhere
Sellers can’t sell, buyers remain on strike.
This is when you step in and get involved.

Lease options = zero risk, zero cash out of pocket, and the fastest way to get started in real estate. The strategy I began with 30 years ago, and the strategy I still invest with today.

Everyone defines freedom differently. What does it look like for you?
No alarm clocks?
Work from anywhere?
Unlimited family time?
Something else?

Back in 1992, political strategist James Carville helped Bill Clinton win the presidency with one unforgettable phrase:
“𝐈𝐭’𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐨𝐦𝐲, 𝐬𝐭𝐮𝐩𝐢𝐝.”
Fast forward to today’s real estate market, and I’ll offer this variation:
“𝐈𝐭’𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐬𝐭, 𝐬𝐭𝐮𝐩𝐢𝐝.”

Many new investors are sitting on the sidelines, waiting for interest rates to drop, or for the "perfect time" to get started. Reality check: 𝐘𝐨𝐮'𝐫𝐞 𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐨𝐰𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐲𝐨𝐮𝐫 𝐟𝐞𝐚𝐫 𝐨𝐟 𝐰𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐦𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐩𝐩𝐞𝐧 𝐦𝐚𝐤𝐞 𝐧𝐨𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐡𝐚𝐩𝐩𝐞𝐧.

Interest rates aren't the problem. Today’s rates are below the 50-year average of 7.75%.
Affordability is the problem. Prices are sky-high, and unless they drop by 30%, (needed but unlikely), this latest drop in interest rates will little matter.
If rates do fall, motivated buyers will charge the market again, and prices will shoot up again. Any savings on interest will get swallowed by higher home prices.

Everyone’s waiting on rates to drop. Will that actually make homes more affordable, or just push prices higher again?
Curious where you stand on this.

@Daniel Sehy  When I mentioned hybrid options I was talking about the flexibility that we have with lease options.  Specifically, using a sandwich lease to control a property with a long term lease, but then assigning the deal to collect an assignment fee, rather than remaining in the deal.
Mistakes?  Well, I don't recommend a sandwich lease to any new investor.  Too many moving parts and if the deal isn't set up correctly, if everyone involved isn't vetted, and if the agreements used are weak, all hell can break loose.
The Cooperative Assignments, on the other hand, are an excellent strategy for the new-kid-on-the-block.  Done correctly, they are risk free and don't require cash out of pocket.  And in our current housing market favoring buyers in many locations, sellers who haven't been able to sell, and there are many, are open to these assignments.  They provide rental income to cover their unwanted monthly payment, and a chance their tenant/buyer will exercise their purchase option.  So, yes, if I was starting right now I would follow the advice I give to other aspiring investors.  The Cooperative Assignment strategy is the way to start when doing with limited cash on hand.

Agreed, James, for old timers like us.  But for the legion of new and aspiring investors, this is possibly a niche, an angle, they aren't familiar with.

. . .and now the housing market has cancer.  https://shorturl.at/mmRLv

For years, cheap debt and easy money fueled a housing frenzy. Now the bill is coming due and it isn’t pretty. This Wolf Street piece is both entertaining and eye-opening: the stories of homeowners juggling three mortgages to survive sound less like financial strategy and more like financial desperation.
The “cancer” analogy isn’t far off.  Free money was the toxin, and now the housing market is living with the consequences.

But here’s the bigger question:
Is this just the beginning of the hangover?
Or is this the reset new investors have been waiting for?
I’d love to hear what you think, especially from those who lived through, (and maybe invested through), the last cycle.