Hello everyone, my wife and I are about 5 weeks into our 10 week gut renovation of our first deal. I am newer to this but have done years of research, read books, and read numerous posts on this forum. The house in question is located in West Milford, NJ and is a 1963 3 bed 2 bath split level on a pretty level .25 acre lot right outside of town center with natural gas but septic, well, etc. The house was purchased for $200k using a HELOC from my primary residence and part of my savings. The house was a hoarder house and needed a large amount of work (Roof including plywood, facia boards, soffit, gutters, underground plumbing, outdoor deck, all windows, doors, flooring, bathrooms, half the sheetrock, retaining walls, etc.) The original budget was 50k. With carrying costs, repairs, and previous unknowns, I am now looking at approximately $65k as we are doing nearly everything ourselves (I own heavy equipment and previously had a contracting/landscaping business). We have another deal coming up that we are under contract for and it leaves me thinking of whether we should sell this or refinance and rent as originally intended.
About us: We our located 30 minutes from this property in NJ. I am from PA and the next deal and several after that will be in Effort, Pa and Pike County, PA which is 1 hour or so from me and where my family is from. I am very familiar with that market, slightly less in NJ.
Long term goals: Owning single families in PA and then possible getting into MF or building townhouses at a later date in NJ. I work a well paying day job but one day would like not to although I wouldn't mind doing this "full time" later for "fun."
Subject house math:
-Purchase: $200k
-Closing, rehab, to date carrying costs: $65k
-ARV $400-425k
-Rent $2900-3100
-Taxes $9k a year
-Insurance $1500 a year (Estimate)
My math works out that if I refinance and pull all my money back out (LTV ~62%) I will have a total monthly cost (Tax, insurance, P&I) of about $2450 leaving roughly $500 cash flow assuming I manage the property myself. This obviously is neglecting the agent fee to get a tenant in. Also, the house is being fully redone top to bottom with good rental and good flip materials for the B community that its in so repairs should be less common than most.
The market here is very hot still and this likely would sell quickly. However, I am not certain how quick it would rent. IF we sold it, assume 10% for agent, transfer fee, etc to sell. Short term capital gains for our bracket would be 20%. I can't do a 1031 exchange since all the ones I am looking at after this are sub 200k purchase prices. So, assuming best case of $425k sale price, and the all in price of $265k...The take away in our pocket would be $85k conservatively after closing costs and capital gains
I need help with how experienced investors decide to keep or to sell. Please correct my thinking but if I can refinance this and rent it with no money left in the deal I have a COC return of 100% right away BUT the opportunity cost of the $160k in equity will be considered too. I wouldn't want to take more money out because 1. I don't NEED it and 2. I don't want to be over leveraged. My gut is to flip, wife's gut is to rent as we intended.
Ideas/advice/critiquing my thinking?