Looking for my next flip (sold 2 houses in March, then took a break), and I'm hearing from everyone that materials have gone through the roof (heh).
I spent some time today going through NAHB, BLS, BOL, CNBC, etc. looking for year-over-year increases, including overall inflation numbers from ShadowStats. I've also polled several of the people in my network (contractors, flippers, wholesalers, brokers) asking what they are seeing.
Below is my updated budget (padded) for Spring/Summer 2021. (1) Note that the 2020 numbers are a padded (I pad everything) high average of budgets pulled from 4 houses I flipped in the PNW in 2019-2020. (2) If the official numbers were below inflation, I used Inflation (Shadowstats.com). (3) The overall increase in price on my breakdown is close to the overall data I've found online, which makes me think I have a decent updated budget for eyeballing deals with. (4) To reiterate, the numbers I started with were unique to my situation in the PNW, so please don't take them as gospel for you!
| Full gut/rehab (3/2 SFR) |
2020 |
2021 April |
Multiplier Materials* |
Materials % of job |
Multiplier Labor |
$ Increase |
| 01: Plans / Permits |
Plans / Permits |
$ 5,000 |
$ 5,500 |
10% |
0% |
10% |
$ 500 |
| 02: Demolition |
|
$ 5,000 |
$ 5,500 |
10% |
0% |
10% |
$ 500 |
| 03: Foundation |
|
$ 20,000 |
$ 22,000 |
10% |
50% |
10% |
$ 2,000 |
| 04: Roof / Gutters |
|
$ 17,000 |
$ 18,870 |
12% |
50% |
10% |
$ 1,870 |
| 05a: Exterior Paint |
Exterior Paint |
$ 7,000 |
$ 7,700 |
10% |
50% |
10% |
$ 700 |
| 05b: Siding |
|
$ 5,000 |
$ 5,500 |
10% |
50% |
10% |
$ 500 |
| 06: Windows |
|
$ 5,000 |
$ 5,500 |
10% |
50% |
10% |
$ 500 |
| 07: Garage |
|
$ 5,000 |
$ 5,500 |
10% |
50% |
10% |
$ 500 |
| 07b: Driveway |
|
$ 5,000 |
$ 5,500 |
10% |
50% |
10% |
$ 500 |
| 08: Framing |
|
$ 5,000 |
$ 9,500 |
170% |
50% |
10% |
$ 4,500 |
| 09: Finish Carpentry |
|
$ 5,000 |
$ 9,500 |
170% |
50% |
10% |
$ 4,500 |
| 10: Sheetrock / Insulation |
|
$ 20,000 |
$ 22,000 |
10% |
50% |
10% |
$ 2,000 |
| 11: Interior Paint |
Interior Paint |
$ 7,000 |
$ 7,700 |
10% |
50% |
10% |
$ 700 |
| 12a: Flooring (laminate) |
Flooring (laminate) |
$ 5,000 |
$ 5,500 |
10% |
50% |
10% |
$ 500 |
| 12b: Flooring (carpet) |
Flooring (carpet) |
$ 5,000 |
$ 5,500 |
10% |
50% |
10% |
$ 500 |
| 13: Kitchen |
All new cabs & countertops |
$ 7,000 |
$ 9,940 |
170% |
20% |
10% |
$ 2,940 |
| 14: Bathroom |
|
$ 5,000 |
$ 5,500 |
10% |
50% |
10% |
$ 500 |
| 15a: Plumbing Rough |
|
$ 7,000 |
$ 7,700 |
10% |
50% |
10% |
$ 700 |
| 15b: Plumbing Final |
Fixtures, water heater, garbage disposal, dishwasher |
$ 2,500 |
$ 2,750 |
10% |
50% |
10% |
$ 250 |
| 16a: Electrical Rough |
|
$ 7,000 |
$ 8,400 |
30% |
50% |
10% |
$ 1,400 |
| 16b: Electrical Final |
Fixtures |
$ 2,500 |
$ 3,000 |
30% |
50% |
10% |
$ 500 |
| 17: HVAC Work |
|
$ 5,000 |
$ 5,500 |
10% |
50% |
10% |
$ 500 |
| 18: Appliances |
Range, Garbage disposal, dishwasher |
$ 4,000 |
$ 4,400 |
10% |
0% |
10% |
$ 400 |
| 19a: Yard |
Cleanup |
$ 2,000 |
$ 2,200 |
10% |
50% |
10% |
$ 200 |
| 19b: Fence |
|
$ 5,000 |
$ 9,500 |
170% |
50% |
10% |
$ 4,500 |
| 20: Basement / Crawlspace |
Vapor barrier |
$ 3,000 |
$ 3,300 |
10% |
50% |
10% |
$ 300 |
| Contingency |
Stuff happens |
$ 5,000 |
$ 5,500 |
10% |
50% |
10% |
$ 500 |
| trash haul |
Final trash load |
$ 500 |
$ 550 |
10% |
0% |
10% |
$ 50 |
| mow lawn |
|
$ 500 |
$ 550 |
10% |
0% |
10% |
$ 50 |
| Staging |
|
$ 3,000 |
$ 3,300 |
10% |
0% |
10% |
$ 300 |
|
|
$ 180,000 |
$ 213,360 |
|
|
|
$ 33,360 |
|
|
|
16% |
|
|
|
|
Does this make sense? Have you used a different method to accommodate rising prices in your budget estimates?
TL;DR I can just add 16% to my cookie-cutter eyeball budget from 2020.
