@Jim K. Exactly this. I'm a gc, booked out 2 years. Looking for help. Prepandemic, you could find a laborer for 20 an hour. Now, 30 gets no response. I did an informal poll of a few 20 to 30 year Olds this past week. Small sample, but asked them if there was a number that they would consider bring in the trades...100k a year didn't move them. They are likely currently making 40 to 60...Last fall I offered a kid working fast food 50 percent more than he was making, with a review and bump in 30 days. He didn't show day 1, and called 3 days later saying he really wanted the job.
I far from a permabull, but McDonalds was paying 12, now that is 20, for 0 increase in output. We are paying 4 for gas that was 2. I don't believe houses are "up" as much as the metric we are using to measure them ( dollars) are down. I'm in a small town, where people want to live. Inventory is at 0. Lots of locals calling a top, but no one is selling. Realtors have 20 buyers for every listing, half are paying cash. Existing still is selling at a discount to new. Not saying it isn't possible, but I feel like with all of those factors, flat on the year would equate to a crash.