I constantly see people referring to the 7-10 year business cycle, citing how long this bull market has been running, as justification for a real estate correction (expecting a crash like '08, not just a softening in demand/values, which would be pretty abnormal). The business cycle, generally regarded by the public as the valuation of the stock market ( roughly the current state of business growth and employment), is not directly correlated with real estate prices.
I have always found this graphic to be the best representation. Other than WWII and the Oil Embargo, the real estate cycle normally takes roughly 18 years to run through all four phases, resulting in a nationwide crash. Different asset classes within real estate also run on slightly offset cycles, further removing the correlation with the equities market.
So, predicting a nationwide downturn in RE prices, encompassing apartments and homes, from SF to Tulsa OK, based on the length of the current period of expansion in both business and RE, is pretty shaky. Yes, they both crashed at once, but they expand at completely different rates. The equities market can crash tomorrow, MF real estate takes longer, as the point of saturation is reached while many projects are still in production. This hastens the decline as these continue to come to market, well after they were no longer financially viable.
