Ok, I did some number crunching, and curious to get any feedback on any glaring mistakes I made. For the sake of this argument, I am equating deduction to 1/3 profit. My tax bracket is about 33% or so. The current home would sell for about 575K, with a mortgage of 295K. Capital gain not taxable. Property Tax assessment is currently 450K, of which is 410K land, and 50K improvement.
Currently, the cost to live (loss) at my current home in El Cerrito is about $1000/mo. It breaks down like this:
PITI = 1975 (1350 mortgage, 550 property tax, 75 insurance)
Deductions = 1500 (870 mort interest, 550 Prop Tax, 75 Insurance)
= 500 calculated as profit 1500x.33
Mortgage Principle Paydown = 480
Total Cost = 500 + 480 (profit) = 980 -1975 (Cost) = ~1000/mo cost to live
Rent current house scenario:
Moving to the Palo Alto area will, of course, cost more money. Worst case scenario of renting out my current home to pay for the $2200 rental property I will move into:
Current home rents for $2200 (worst case) = 1475 income after taxes
Current Home deductions (as profit above) = 500 (1500 x .33)
Current Home Depreciation (@50K value) = 50 (150 x .33)
Mortgage Principle Paydown = 480
Total Profit = 2505
Total Cost (current PITI + new rental) = 4175
Net cost of living (Worst case) = 1675/mo
If deduction was valued at 200K, then deduction would be 600 x .33 = 200, bringing net living cost to 1525.
If rent was increased to 2500, then net cost of living would be 1475.
If both rent and depreciation were increased (best case scenario) the net cost of living would be $1325/mo, and I would have the responsibility of being a landlord to a property 1 hour away, but the investment would be safe and robust, with little possibility of losing equity, and some possibility of gaining equity.
I know there are other deductions, such as repairs and travel to conduct business. As well other expenses, such as broken appliances, other impending damages, and vacancy. I would manage the property myself. If I can flip a home using my own hands and tools, and can evaluate people professionally for court and other high stakes matters, I can be a decent landlord.
Sell House scenario:
House sells for 550K (worst case), 30K to realtors, pay off 295K mortgage = 225K cash in hand.
At a 5% return, 225k generates 628 after 33% taxation.
$2200 rent - 628 = 1571/mo cost of living
At a 4% return (worst case?), 225K generates 500/mo after 33% taxation
$2200 rent - 500 = $1700/mo cost of living (ultra worst case)
At a 7% return after sale for 575K sale (best case scenario), the 245K generates $957/mo after taxes. $2200 rent - 957 = 1243/mo cost of living.
So, in the end, it seems like the rent vs sale aren't much different, and the monthly difference between the worst case and best case scenarios are about a day's wages in my profession. One risk is the responsibility of being a landlord, and the other risk is if the market crashes and my investment principle tanks. Any thoughts?