Very frustrating. Cold feet round 2. Appraisal problems. Sincere appreciation to previous and future thoughts and suggestions.
Appraisal came back $20K under offer. The appraisal seems wildly inaccurate in my opinion, ALL 6 of the comps were 13+ blocks farther away towards 82nd Ave, a sketchy area, NONE were in the other direction, Woodstock, of higher value. I was shooting for the path of progress and the place is truly square between a fancy neighborhood and a sketchy one, in the direction it will be forced to grow. Seems very lop sided, but I'm facing the circumstance that when I go to sell, it could be tallied the same and that 20K is just gone.
I will note, that I do have the 20K, if I want to press forward. It is something I can do. But that's a big chunk away from other potential investments that wasn't expected. And obviously, I do have an out to walk away now.
And just like the repairs, they're not budging an inch. Claiming to have other offers and bring on the termination if I don't like it, etc. And with how the market is right now, it could very well be the case. I'm trying in the midst of this to be realistic about the market, but not stupid. There was a duplex I was looking at that was listed at $450K and sold 2 months later at $595K. That blew my mind. The other thing that blew my mind is that the house I'm closing on, the Zillow estimate was 95K lower in March 2020. (and current Zillow est matches the appraisal)
I know people always say there's a housing bubble brewing, but the state of forbearance and eviction moratoriums has also crept into my fear state. As far as, what will happen when those things expire. There will never be a time when people aren't speculating about a bubble, but those two things are pretty concrete and will have an undeniable cause/effect.
Some experts are saying to weather the storm by only investing in cash flow properties, no flips. As rental price increases are a much more secure stat right now.
I've talked with a local house hacking aficionado here, very smart (thanks @Brad Hammond!) that said it's very unusual to nail down a place that will cash flow here, the more common scenario here is a significant chunk of your mortgage.
This place is ideal in that sense. I've ran the numbers through AirDNA and as an Airbnb, the 2BR/1BA in front can generate enough to pay the full mortgage. (While I live in the separated 1BR/1BA ADU on the back of the lot) A lot of work to take on to run that, but the numbers work to pay the full mortgage. No profit, no repair/upkeep $ mind you, but still. The cashflow is me not paying for a place to live. If I rented the 2BR out as a standard, lower maintenance, month to month rental I would contribute to the mortgage about the same that I pay for the house I'm renting right now, $1000.
Zero living expenses sounds amazing, but running an AirBNB with no cleaner is a lot of work to earn that. Not very passive and I'm already a business owner with a packed work schedule. A pivotal part of the whole plan though is cashing out at some point and I don't like starting out that game $20K in the hole.
The numbers work, but there's nothing saying I need to do this deal, now, this month. It is arguably a perfect property for me with the layout (it also has a large detached garage I can run my online retail business out of), which is uncommon, but there have been others that would work. I'm sure there will be others in the future that would work and I'm patient. In the future after all the forbearance and eviction moratoriums tap out and the effects from those things roll in.
Thoughts? Suggestions? Past relatable experiences? Anything I'm missing?