Quote from @Karen Margrave:
I am not in the STR niche. I have however been in real estate and construction since 1984. I have been through a few recessions, and the crash. Everything before now was somewhat predictable. We have never had anything close to the circumstances we have now, and anyone thinking they know what's going to happen is lying to themselves. We have tight fuel supplies, meaning everything that is transported by anything is costing more. We have stores unable to replenish supplies. Small businesses are paying more for materials and supplies, rent, utilities, labor, insurance, etc., and hanging on by a thread. Now we have high interest rates being imposed with the sole intent of crushing real estate and construction, and it will affect every segment of the economy.
As to your STR, it will depend on where they are. The more popular areas will be least affected.
Once jobs start being lost, it's game over, and everything can come crashing down. You can't calculate the impact this will have, nor how long it will last, it will depend a large part on how fast the U.S. can start producing fuel, and stabilizing the supply chain. It's definitely one of those sit down, buckle up and hold on times of life!
There are SO many variables to consider in making any type of real estate decision. Purchasing a STR in the Tahoe area in the early 2000s... location was always paramount, however, some of the STR market also has to do with the culture and trends of the time. First consideration was always location because people pay a premium on locations that they desire to be in. Waterfront and downtown areas have always been prime. However, at the time there was also a growing market for something of a hybrid ambiance in these Tahoe homes. People wanted the log cabiny, rustic feel, but also... new, modern, clean... and here's the kicker... a luxury ambiance with outdoor hot tubs, indoor saunas, indoor heated pools. The works. So, even if you didn't have the premium downtown or waterfront location, you could still make bank with these new properties that were being built by the dozens and marketed as luxury vacation rentals. This wave continued for a while until the recession hit and then these STR owners started getting foreclosed left and right. Those who were able to stay were still able to reap the benefits of owning a luxury STR. I didn't really see much of a downturn in rentals, especially for the higher end rentals. Even throughout the Covid pandemic (aside from a period of a few months of lockdown) the rentals held up pretty steadily and maybe even experienced an uptick because people were itching to get out of their homes.
That being said, its a tough balance also, because a lot of these luxury vacation homes were situated in residential neighborhoods in the outskirts of town, where it was supposed to be more remote and serene and quite frankly, residential, and one of the prime struggles that STRs had to struggle with was the growing number of residents who felt encroached upon and ultimately wanted to oust STR rentals.
Another thing that factors into STRs is the local legislation. This is entirely another can of worms, especially for Tahoe, as developers started to come in and really change the landscape of what Tahoe had been for decades. There's good and bad, but I think depending on your situation, you could be at the short end of the stick, or you just roll with the punches and make your adjustments accordingly.
There aren't just one or two variables that determine how a rental market is going to perform. I think that (and I heard this from someone recently) no matter where you choose, take a look at what is working for other STRs in the area, and then do something similar... and a little more, to give yourself a bit of an edge.
@Karen Margrave said "Once jobs start being lost, it's game over..." And yes, I think it's a bit of a heart stopper because we HAVE seen so many things in the past, but they were largely... waves... that caused ripples in a certain direction...or maybe a couple waves. Now, though, it's wave after wave, and simultaneous waves coming from all sorts of directions... and the ripples are just not as logical anymore.
I agree with Karen... it's one of those "sit down, buckle up and hold on" times of life. I just wish I knew the best way to sit down and buckle up! I am a fish out of water right now. I'm looking to reinvest (I know it's probably not the most opportune time) but I'm absolutely beside myself trying to determine the best place to put that money. Any insight from the community would be much appreciated!