Originally posted by @Evan Polaski:
@Levi Brackman, in my view, you are confusing financial returns of an investment as being the thesis.
Flipping and BRRRR both follow the same thesis: a property in disrepair within a proven market can be improved and increase the value. The measure of that thesis is CoC or yield.
Put another way: let's say your proposed thesis of "Chicago area properties are depressed and going to rise in value" is your guidepost. How are you measuring that thesis? Your thesis may be right but without a measure, and comparison metrics, you have no way of knowing whether you are correct.
And then, at the end of the day, real estate is an investment vehicle. Investments, by definition, are financially driven with every investors goal to maximize return given a specific risk tolerance. While risk is much harder to assess quantitatively, return can be very easily measured in several ways, hence the focus on CoC, yield, ROI, ROE, IRR, Equity multiple, etc.
@Evan Polaski, given the thesis of "Chicago area properties are depressed and going to rise in value," I would then measure the appreciation rate against that of another major metro area that was not depressed, say Denver. If the value appreciated more that I'd say my thesis was correct. Of course, the higher rate of appreciation would result in greater ROI and IRR.
This is different from the BRRRR and Flipping approach, which is more akin to finding a property that is individually depressed in value, adds value to it, rent it out, or sells it at a profit. It is also thesis-driven but based on individual properties rather than based on market or demographic trends.