I'd include the 10% management fee in your analysis personally. Unless you're destined to open up your own PM business, you are almost certainly going to want to hire one eventually.
Are you planning to owner-occupy? That makes managing it yourself much easier, but if you're not, some of your cost estimates are low. For example, I read "Large lot with nice yard..." and think "ca-ching, ca-ching." And the cost of heating the building can vary widely from year to year. If you're paying for heat, it matters that the windows are replacement, roof is insulated, etc. And expect that tenants who aren't paying for heat will crank it up to 80+ and crack the windows if left to their own devices. So I'd budget for at least $3k to be on the safe side. Again... some of these extra expenses are mitigated if you owner-occupy.
$3000 for closing costs seems low. I suppose it depends on who you hire to do inspections, and which ones you do. I'd budget 5% of the purchase price ($4500).
We also include incidentals like accounting fees, and legal fees (our properties are owned in LLCs), but those might not be expenses that you need to incur with your first property.
We have a friend in REI who says that he doesn't expect his properties to cash flow in the first year. We chuckled at that when we were brand new, but the reality is that he's right more often than not. There are always start-up costs that are difficult to foresee (are there existing tenants? our experience has been that about 50% of those inherited tenants work out, and the others don't... to varying degrees of expense. Does the inspection reveal something that isn't imminent, but needs to be dealt with soon? do you need to upgrade the thermostats so your tenants can only raise the heat to a certain level? etc, etc, etc.).
Expect that your first purchase analysis will be off. You'll learn a lot with the first few, and like those who have been doing it a while, your analysis will get better with each acquisition. Just err on the side of caution and skew your first few on the conservative side.