Originally posted by @Dillon Cook:
@Jeremy Lee
For the last 6 months, we hear about Californians exiting CA. Theoretically there are fewer people coming in than leaving. Do you agree with this? If so, why would RE prices (especially in your area) continue to act this way? That's crazy.
It's uncommon if I see less than 10 offers in on a starter home in Tampa. I also see many folks coming in from the Northeast. Literally every day I think I speak with someone new from New York moving down here.
Hi Dillon,
I think there are definitely more Californians leaving the state but I don't think it's nearly as many to reduce the demand so that the supply can keep up - there is a housing shortage in CA and home building/residential land development has not been a big priority here (at least around where I live).
Also, I think a lot of renters or those with smaller homes in LA (especially those in tech or those with generational wealth) are realizing that WFH is a thing, and are leaving the bigger metros for the suburbs (my realtor said that in most metro areas and places near universities, etc apartment/multi-family landlords are experiencing higher vacancy rates and having to offer more concessions to get people in). Regarding OC, a lot of people from LA are migrating south and getting more for their money (the LA market is even crazier than it is here from what I've heard, so it must seem like a bargain for anyone who was considering living in LA but can now WFH in OC). That's my theory in explaining at least part of it. According to the seller's agent at the place where we were outbid by $60k, these people were moving from Hollywood Hills and were already outbid 5 times and got fed up with it.
I think over time, more and more people (particularly middle class) will get priced out of living in CA in general and the ones left will be the ultra wealthy, upper middle class and the poor/homeless. Homelessness has increased seemingly exponentially too - it feels like yesterday when we would drive the 5 or 101 from OC to LA and vice-versa and you'd see maybe a few tents here and there. Now in many places (beginning around downtown LA and north through Griffith Park area) there are patches of mini-tent cities. I think it's worse along the 101 actually. It's pretty sad how bad things are getting, and I fear it'll only get worse. I think the frenzy and desperation are settling in as far as people wanting homes. 3/2 and 4/2 SFRs seem to be the highest demand and are commanding the most drastic overbids.