Hi all. Ok, to clarify. Sure, the properties will appreciate, but this particular region the appreciation is low, and so I am not considering it as part of my decision process. I am strictly looking at cash flow, plus pay down relative to exit target. And why I asked for advice, since normally potential appreciation does influence my analysis of a property if it's not a home run. I think I have gotten some great answers, and I'll post back with all the numbers as I work through the deal (I tend to run it a bunch of times/ways, and really over-analyze), but the highlights are:
total out of pocket 14000 (dp+reno+10% reno contingency) it really just needs paint and a lot of cleaning, but planning for at least one "gotcha"
monthly cash flow - $595 including 12% capex (thanks @Will Gaston), 1 month vacancy, all expenses, debt pay down, actual taxes, actual insurance quote, and 10% management (even though it will be self managed)
Will keep you posted.