All Forum Posts by: John Smithe

I have been on the forums and reading up on real estate investing for about 2 years now. I am so ready to get started but, like many others, I find it very hard to pull the trigger when properties are at such insane prices. I see properties in my target markets that are 60k higher than what they were just 2 years ago.

I have been hoping against all odds for some sort of crash however, all the indicators I am seeing seem clear that prices are going to continue to rise with such low supply and high demand with rates continuing to go lower and lower. I work in the Loss Mitigation realm and I just do not think the forbearances and payment deferrals are going to turn into foreclosures with everyone having so much built-in equity. In addition, a lot of experts are expecting some major inflation in the next few years. They say that being in cash is not a good idea and to get it in some sort of asset.

I wanted to run a scenario through to real estate professionals much smarter than me. I could not find anything on google (which means this is probably a really terrible idea lol). So, I’ve worked fully remote in Loss Mitigation IT for about 5 years now. I float around from furnished short term rental to areas that strike my fancy. My idea is to look for a higher end house and live in it for 2 years or so. Expectation is that price will continue to go up. I know many institutions are expecting 10% increases this year alone. I would keep my pulse on the market for bearish signs and sell when the dust has settled some. I know timing the market like this is a risky play.  I also know I would need to at least net 10% to cover future selling costs to break even.  

Hoping to get some sort of feedback. Is this just an insane idea because I just want to do something (anything) really bad in a crazy period of history? Or is there logic to this idea? A two-year reset until supply goes up, sell and then filter the proceeds into cash flowing rentals.

Thanks @Larry Turowski  You are near the market I'm looking at, Albany :P  I wouldn't have expected it to be this competitive out here.  Yeah, hard not to get discouraged...after so many duds, its getting easier to think "eh, I guess a 5 cap isn't TERRIBLE" which I don't want to get into that frame of thought. 

Solid advice.  Thanks @Cassi Justiz

I've been on the market for a few months...not finding any properties where the numbers work.  One duplex through the other day that looks promising (still a low 5% cap but that seems to be amazing compared to all the other properties ive been sifting through).  It went to a pending status within 2 days.  I spoke with the property manager I'm working with who knew the selling agent and apparently 4 offers came in at asking price on day 1. 

My question:  should I be putting in offers immediately before I even view the property?  I know a lot of OOS investors do this all the time....and probably what I'm up against.  It just scares me that I'm going to get roped into a property I don't want because I wasn't able to view the situation that could make a property an easy no.  I don't want to pour inspection money into a place that I didn't view that I never would have offered on had I seen it in the first place.

Any thoughts from the group?

That's why I'm asking :)

Hey everyone.

I came across the following article:  https://marketmadhouse.com/baby-boomers-blow-real-estate-market/.  Basically, to summarize, they say all the baby boomers properties will be going on the market in the next 10-20 years and most millennials will not yet be able to purchase giving a huge oversupply of empty houses.  

Wondering what the experts thoughts are on this.  This just one of those doom and gloom articles looking for clicks? 

@Jordan Hadley, I'm curious too.  I did a search and found barely any multi units...not even terrible deals.  Also saw barely any SFRs under 100k.  If i move to a market to start up, i'd rather it be a fun market to live like Nashville opposed to some of the other cashflow markets with cold weather and no big draws :P

Thanks @Alex Bacon!  I just moved from San Diego...another similarity lol.  Was the 10 unit your first investment?  i always thought you needed prior residential experience from lenders before they will grant a loan for 5+ units.  I never considered anything larger than 5 as i thought it wouldn't be possible at this point in my process.  You just gave me something new to research :P

Yeah @Jay Hinrichs, I agree.  Tried different keywords with nothing recent or relative to what i need.  Erik is clearly looking for a reaction and not going to go down that road.  

Good point. I guess its not absolutely dependent. I just thought it would be a good way for me to get a sizable loan on 4 units for a small amount down giving a good COC return to start out strong.