Welcome @Jeffery Drake. You are definitely right about the 1% rule not working in the Comox Valley market. This is not really a buy and hold cashflow market at the moment. I did manage to find a decent deal here in Courtenay last year, but it definitely would not be considered a great deal in most markets. I picked up a half duplex for $190,000 that rents out for $1300 per month. With 20% down, the mortgage, property tax, and insurance comes out to just under $1000 per month, so I "cash flow" ~ $300 per month. This does not take into consideration vacancy (my tenants plan to live out their lives there), management (I manage myself), or cap ex. In the year and a half that I have owned this property, I've had to do several minor repairs, and replace the fridge and a dishwasher. Basically, I'd say that the majority of my cash flow mentioned above will likely be eaten by cap ex and repairs leaving me at just better than a yearly breakeven. This is with amazing tenants that are putting lots of their own money and sweat into the property and a property that was in pretty much move-in ready shape when I bought it.
If you are looking for monthly cash flow, I'd say that 0.5% will not cut it. It just depends on what your goals and expectations are as to whether or not it is a good time or place to invest in. While I don't rely on appreciation at all, you are definitely right that we have seen amazing appreciation in the last year here. It does seem as though it will likely continue for some time, but even with all of the tailwinds here, I'd be hesitant to bank on it. The 2 major head winds that I see at the moment in this market is 1) rising interest rates and 2) the loan qualification rules.
I think rising interest rates are going to be a much bigger problem here in Canada than in the US since our mortgages here are predominately 5 year terms. I think there are quite a few people out there that are having a hard enough time paying their current mortgages. As these 5 year terms expire and newer higher rates kick in, there should be an increase in foreclosures.
Secondly, the loan qualification rules are going to make it more difficult for buyers to get into the market. Sure, you can still get a 3% loan here, but in order to get that loan from one of the major banks, you have to qualify at the Bank of Canada posted rate which jumped in the last few months. As that rate pushes up towards 5% it becomes much more difficult to get loans. 3 months ago we qualified for a $350,000 purchase. I got a call from our banker a few weeks ago saying that we no longer qualify for a loan due to the increase in the posted rate.
Having said all of that, I still think the Comox Valley is a great place to own real estate!
As for the BRRR strategy, I'm still trying to wrap my head around if that is really a viable strategy here. Again, depends on what you are looking for and what your goals are. Given the current market, I'm not sure you can purchase a place cheaply enough here to be able to rent it out with enough cushion to cash flow in the first place, much less after your have refinanced your money back out. I love this strategy in theory, and I would really love for someone to prove me wrong here. I'd be curious to hear how you would do it and what your strategy would be.
I've not looked at Gold River. I've mainly been focused here and am still holding out hope for Port Alberni. I've heard rumors of a new copper mine on the north island near Holberg and that some people are hoping for a rebound in Port Hardy. Not sure about that, but perhaps worth looking into.
Good luck with your investing here and keep us posted on what you are able to find. It's great seeing some others in the valley that are trying to get off the ground with real estate!