Hi David L, the timing of your response was fortuitious as I just received the July 2023 update on Fund 4 this past week. Still significantly lagging but yet again with promises of an imminent turnaround. Much longer report this time which suggests they are getting lots of questions and concerns particularly in light of having paused distributions.
Occupancy is down relative to projections and operating expenses are up relative to projections. Their explanation: "The overall theme for 2023 is that unexpected roadblocks and delays throughout 2022 put us behind our originally targeted timelines for infill (occupancy increases) impacting how quickly we could increase revenue." So I stick with my initial assessment - insufficient due diligence was done at outset. To pause distributions two years into the fund (when, presumably, some contingency was built into the financial model at outset for 'surprises') suggests a magnitude of issues that were not caught during due diligence.
Are they in over their skis? My opinion is yes. Take a look at what they have going on: https://odcfund.com/our-offerings/. It's hard to focus when you have so many balls in the air and some of those balls need dedicated attention because you didn't do your homework at inception. Brandon Turner's post on Twitter on Aug 29: "There is a big difference between being busy and being effective, and in the case of a lot of investors; they believe that because they're buying properties, means they are going to succeed." Ahem, perhaps they should take some of their own advice!
So, David L, if your objective is a successful exit (or even predictable returns as forecasted - which was my objective), my opinion is stay far away from Open Door Capital. There are many other plan sponsors out there who are willing to be held accountable for delivering on their projections without whining about unexpected roadblocks and delays - that they should have anticipated had they done their homework. Personally, I don't have confidence any longer that Open Door Capital is doing the type of due diligence required to deliver to their projections.