First of all, thank you to everyone that replied! It amazes me how much help is available on this site.
Just to give a better idea of the deal I'm looking at:
Price: $68,000
Rent: $950 (lease already in place, w/ one year rent guarantee)
Total Cash Investment: ~$16,600 (20% down + closing costs)
50% Rule: $950 / 2 = $475 - $290 (mortgage) = $185/month cash flow
Cash-on-Cash Return if appraised at $68,000? 13.4%
My actual projections are higher, but I'm still learning, so I'm sure I'm erring on the profitable side for me! So I thought I'd use the 50% rule to make sure I'm staying conservative in estimates.
If appraised at $63,240 (93% of asking price), then cash invested upfront goes to
$12,648 (20% downpayment) + $3,000 (closing costs) + $4,760 (diff b/w asking price and appraisal) = $20,408
Return drops to: 10.9%
Still not a bad return, but obviously my cash tied up in the investment went up by almost $4,000, for a worse return! @Marco Santarelli , if the increase was only $1k, I'd be more willing to still go forward with it, but not at $4k.
@Chris Clothier , I plan to take your advice and tell the provider that I want the clause removed, but will be willing to hear their argument for the higher price in case the appraisal does come in low.
I've talked to another investor that has purchased from the same provider before and I don't believe he's purposely trying to rip me off, but the clause is definitely built in to protect him from downside risk and not me.
I'll let you all know how it goes!