All Forum Posts by: Jeffrey Daniels

Hi @Taber Annable! Sounds like you're crushing it already. I'm here in Phoenix and interested in getting some of the fresh local investors together to vibe and hear new ideas.

Hi Yael! Congrats on your first post! How is your STR treating you here in Phoenix?

Spent a couple weeks in Cleveland this summer. Whatever your opinion of Case-Shiller, they have CLE top of their list - which is where Phoenix was years ago. Comparing the two cities, I think the forecasted appreciation is due to the very low-cost of acquisition in CLE, as I imagine other Ohio markets. Driving through those "C class" neighborhoods with inexpensive homes/multi's - they are so very, very different from our Phoenix area "C" neighborhoods. I think the more expensive parts of Ohio will continue to get more expensive, but the captial expense and municipal involvement required to revitalize those low-cost areas - I mean, people have spent more for less return these days so who knows.

Trying to read this article and wondering if it was written by ai, or whatever this news source is... Regardless, I can see how it could easily be read that "dj sauce" is also the owner. However, I believe they're missing a comma when they said: "DJ Sauce, the owner of the home and the man listed as an emergency contact all were charged with “unlawful use of a rental property” and allowing “an unlawful gathering.” I believe they're talking about 3 different people. 

I expect 1st mortgage on the 2nd property is going to be higher, anyway you slice it.

But for getting cash out of the first property, I believe with a HELOC you're going to be paying the higher rate only on the amount you take out vs. restructuring the whole existing loan.

Again I haven't been convinced that some of the ideas I've been hearing are ones I want to recommend to my clients. So very interested to hear detailed recommendations here.

I'm interested to hear lender responses to this as well. I think it's a common situation here and I'm hearing some suggesting moves that don't make sense to me, but I'm just an agent! lol Still, I think a HELOC makes the most sense in order to keep that prime rate on the 1st mortgage and still get some cash out for that second property.

Congrats on getting your first door, @Avery Lee - that's a hurdle not everyone clears. You've probably heard to not "throw good money after bad", but deciding which is which isn't obvious. Many investors are strictly anti-HOA, and I agree that HOA's can be poorly managed - still, no matter - HOA's do create value for a community. In this case, it sounds like the HOA expense covers exterior maintenance and the $10,000 to install new siding is, without knowing details - I'm guessing a once in 20 yr expense. This should also immediately improve the curb appeal of the community, which may lead to higher resale values and make it more appealing to tenants. If the HOA fee is being increased, it's more than likely to improve the financials and condition of the entire community. Expenses for landscaping, pool maintainence - it's all going up. Some communities are actually in a state of decay with owners refusing to accept that buildings need to be maintained - this happens with single-family no-HOA homes as well, just that expense lands entirely upon you, instead of a community.

So if you're considering dumping it... You've owned it a year, and appreciation has probably been flat, while mortgage rates have increased. You probably paid transaction fees for loan origination, title insurance, HOA transfers, and if you had an agent represent you - you paid them too. If you go to sell now, you're going to trigger another set of transaction fees, and you're going to be negotiating with either buyers at 7% financing, or cash expecting a discounted deal. Either way, you'll want to disclose the special assessement, and the upcoming increase - and if I was representing the buyer I would leverage that circumstance to the fullest. As the Seller, you may be chalking up a substantial one-time loss in order to avoid a less than expected ROI over the long-term.

A townhouse in Tempe? Chances are, you're going to do well on a 5+ yr plan. Driving down Rio Salado - the commercial development along the lake is nuts. Also Tempe being land-locked, having ASU, and Intel, and everything else going on in Phoenix... Overall, I remain bullish on Maricopa County. Hold, and buy good deals if you can find them.

Greetings @Joshua Mchatten! I moved to Phoenix almost 25 years ago, and can only wish I was smart enough to have started with a house-hack back then. Even though I've experienced this city's "rise from the ashes" (harhar!) - I am still bullish on Phoenix and expect our organic home appreciation to outpace inflation. There is downward pressure on current market stats. Mostly, imo, a result of resale properties having been owned less than a couple years - I don't consider those as reliable indicators.

Getting into the rent game - I see so much competition in the pipeline as build-to-rent communties come online. In some areas, I've heard owners getting higher rents because of these - still I expect landlords are going to see increasing competition from brand new efficient homes, as well as some very sweet corporate apartments in walkable locations. They're not "cheap", but tenants who can afford it, and pay rent on-time, may be choosing Class A+, or a home that doesn't cost $500 a month to cool all Summer.

Figure FHA min down is 3.5%, which can get you into the $425,000 range - and you may still be looking at another $8,000 in closing costs. Hopefully a seller or builder will offer concessions to help with those, but seeing an overall decline in resale seller credits as well. Under $425,000 you're probably going to only see multi's in desperate need of capital expenditures to bring market rents. If you're willing to SFH and house-hack rooms, you'll probably be looking outside the Valley for cash flow. If you're just starting out though, breaking even on the monthly nut is winning, far as I'm concerned.

I've connected with a couple people just starting their Phoenix journey, and it could be fun to get together and hear your different visions. There is a lot of advice out there, still seems what's working today is overplayed tomorrow.

Water supply around Phoenix is not dwindling, those are sensational headlines that many people are going to believe though. Over the past few years I've attended several presentations by water experts that have spent their entire careers studying this topic, they care more about the science than the economics... water nerds. Yes, we need sustainable development and conservation practices or we will be in trouble - but for the foreseeable future Phoenix is in very good shape.

Arizona's new Governor is in her first year, and she was elected to replace a very pro- development predecessor - so Arizona politics are different than they were over the past decade. It's important to know the boring stuff happening at the Capital, vs. those delicious click bait headlines.

IMO: there is already more approved development than what could actually be built over the next decade - there will be plenty of new home supply. However aside from smaller infill projects, those homes are not in "Phoenix" proper. They are creating new cities on land that is less expensive to aquire and develop than our urban core - 20 years ago they called it "sprawl". Nobody wanted to live there 100 years ago when they could have built anywhere, and not much has changed, except builders gonna build profit.

I believe organic home appreciation in Phoenix will continue to outpace inflation. Property may not double in value every 3 years like it has, but that was a correction based on municipalities planning and investment. I say "organic", because we have a lot of homes here that have been poorly maintained and/or terribly renovated - and many people were encouraged to pay well over appraisal values. If that home sells for less two years later, that's not a natural decline or crash.

Choice homes in choice Phoenix neighborhoods that are priced appropriately will have multiple offers opening weekend.

if you're sitting on a doozy off a busy street with peeling paint, busted roof, struggling HVAC, and cast plumbing - yeah, you're not setting any sales records compared to when rates were 3%.

You could say I remain bullish on Phoenix.