Hey Brad,
I appreciate your detailed response. Here are my answers:
Our plan in more detail:
We plan to open two LLCs, One for the real estate and one for the restaurant. We expect to put $100k into the restaurant space which will be part of the real estate side and I did include that $100 in my BP Analysis.
We then plan to put another $300k into it but that would come from the restaurant LLC if you will. My partners who run some restaurants feel the "build out" would come from the restaurant which is common in the industry. We expect this to take 4-6 months. Of course it could go longer but we know some contractors pretty well so..we'll see.
I forgot to include it in my post but I did calculate out carrying costs which would be around $8800/month for all expenses, ($5200 of that covered by apartments), which leaves us with $3600/month or $21,600 for the first 6 months.
We also met with a smaller bank who would give us 75% LTV, it would be a 20 year loan and interest rate could change every 3 or 5 years...I forget which, but they are willing to do this based on my and my partners experience/assets. I did run the analysis awhile ago so it shows an interest rate of 4.8% which will probably be up to 5.5% now, but shouldn't change numbers a lot.
In regards to the apartment rent raise, the market will support the rate change. This building is in the heart of the downtown. Also, we have a plan for converting them to short term rentals. I own a STR 1 block away which Nets $2k a month for the past 2 years with 88% booking rate and often people reach out trying to book weekends and weeks that are not available so I know the area can support more, plus we have a big wedding hall 1 block away so we plan to capitalize on that. (I have a 2nd STR on the same street 1 town over which also has more interest than availability). There is a 5% tax to the city for operating a short term rental and I do realize that the city could change their mind and not allow them at any point but worst case scenario we could raise rents slightly still with LTR. There is also an "office" on the second floor we would not need so at some point we would turn that into a bedroom to one of the adjacent apartments which will increase rent.
You are right about the property taxes. I think I added $2k to the current ones but they will definitely go up but I don't expect a significant raise, (maybe that is something I can check with the city based on my expected ARV).
In regards to the insurance, I did ask my State Farm agent for a quote and gave him all of the details and that's what he came back with. I also tried to be very conservative on all of my building expenses including an $1800/month management fee which we would be paying ourselves/go into cash flow at least for the foreseeable future.
If the restaurant fails, we would at least have the build out done for 1/2 restaurants and could rent the spaces. We also plan some activities for additional rental income because our restaurant would be a brunch/lunch place and then we could rent it out in evenings/weekends for groups/events and or rent out the kitchen as that's something that is also of need in the area. (These hopeful additional rental opportunities are Not part of my analysis at all).
Hope that helps. Let me know anything else I can answer. Thanks!