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All Forum Posts by: Carlton Ellis

Carlton Ellis has started 3 posts and replied 92 times.

Post: Still Waiting On Hyperinflation...

Carlton EllisPosted
  • Real Estate Consultant
  • Lansing, MI
  • Posts 117
  • Votes 32
Originally posted by Bryan Hancock:
If you watch the video I posted above it will speak to the conflagration in currency being coupled with our currency when it was ON THE GOLD STANDARD. I realize that actual data on the subject may be of little concern to people that are convinced the world is ending, but that may be something worth looking at for the casual observers.

I do see countless articles concerned about the dollar maintaining purchasing power and its mark as the reserve currency. What I do not see from ANY quasi-credible authors that are not carrying an agenda is evidence of HYPERinflation. Please point me to them if they exist.

Hedging bets, immunizing risk, etc. is a world different than preparing for hyperinflation. There are really very few techniques that work well in hyperinflationary environments. Hoarding cash as some blog posts have recommended is about as close to the worst thing that one can do in a hyperinflationary environment.

I do agree with previous posts that even modest inflation is a severe disincentive to invest in cash. My personal portfolio puts my money where my words are on this point. Owning cheap, fixed-rate debt with positive operating leverage product is about the best heightened inflation hedge there is and that is a huge part of why I love real estate right now. It is also a huge part of why I think this 50% rule worshiping gibberish ignores one of the primary value centers in owning real estate. That is another topic for another day though.

On top of everything you mention a major compoent for a inflationary economy just doesn't exist in the United States and that's significant WAGE GROWTH.

Middle class wage growth has basically been stagnant for the past 30 years. The current economic situation has a job market that is barely limping along and I've just recently read that 40% of the new jobs being created are low wage fast, retail or service jobs.

There will be some commodity inflation due to increased demand from emerging market countries and things like crop shortages. But we are seeing nothing like the factors that cause substantial inflation in the 1970's.

Post: Where does Oil Go From Here?

Carlton EllisPosted
  • Real Estate Consultant
  • Lansing, MI
  • Posts 117
  • Votes 32
Originally posted by Matty M:
I am with you, Bienes -

On one hand I am excited. I've been averaging 45% a year return in the commodities space since Mar. 09. But on the other hand is it really just purchasing power of the dollar losing value? Luckily at the moment I am not driving much and I eat more chicken than beef.

Smart Man! :mrgreen:

There is a increase in worldwide demand that is driving commodity prices and it is a long term trim. When you combine that with uncertainty in the currency markets i.e. the whole issue of the debt ceiling the problems with Greece, Spain and Portugal commodites have become a "Safe Haven" as well as their normal roles in industry and agriculture.

I don't know if you going to be cranking out 45% returns in the coming years but it's a good sector to be invested in long term.,

Post: Basketball Playoffs 2011

Carlton EllisPosted
  • Real Estate Consultant
  • Lansing, MI
  • Posts 117
  • Votes 32
Originally posted by Joshua Dorkin:
Any basketball fans out there? What are your thoughts about the playoffs so far?

My Knicks got eviscerated, the Lakers are a complete surprise (because they have sucked), and San Antonio looked like a bunch of geriatrics. Who's going to take this championship?

It's been a great playoff season so far.

How many people actually thought the Mavs would beat the Lakers and do it in four STRAIGHT?

Nobody saw the Memphis Grizzlies beating the Spurs. I give them credit for taking the Thunder to seven games. The Grizzlies played with great effort and heart.

I'm not suprised Boston got beat by the Heat. They were never the same team after the Kendrick Perkins trade. They need rebounding and more athletic players. The big three still have some mileage in them but they need help.

I think the Chicago Bulls are the best team in the NBA. They have great defense, unselfish offense and Derrick Rose is awesome.

I'm looking for a Mavs - Bulls NBA Final with the Bulls in sex.

Post: dominos falling?? What if???

Carlton EllisPosted
  • Real Estate Consultant
  • Lansing, MI
  • Posts 117
  • Votes 32
Originally posted by Melinda:
Rich,

I don't think a discussion of the future of the Euro is all that controversial and I, for one, enjoy your articles and queries on macro topics.

I believe you asked if we, the US taxpayers, were going to contribute to the bailout of Europe. I believe we already are in that the IMF is contributing mightily and guess who funds something in the neighborhood of 30% of the IMF's budget.

This is not neccessarily a but thing for the U.S.A if you look at the big picture. The European Union is one of our largest trading partners. If the Euro contnues to decline in value then the value of the dollar increases in relation to it. If this goes too far then U.S. exports aren't going to be price competitive in Europe. This in turn hurts us and our economic recovery. The economic interest of the United States are best served by having a stable European Union.

Post: dominos falling?? What if???

Carlton EllisPosted
  • Real Estate Consultant
  • Lansing, MI
  • Posts 117
  • Votes 32
Originally posted by Rich Weese:
One more item on my ex state of CA. The city of San Francisco just posted a proposition TODAY that if passed, will give ILLEGAL immigrants the right to vote. This should REALLY hep the state. Gee, I wonder what happens if this passes? Little by little the rules and laws are muddied. Rich.

The first question I have to ask is how much of chance does a proposition like this have to pass in a general election?

Remember people can propose whatever they want. First it has to make it on to the ballot and second people have to vote on it. If people in California want to give undocumented immigrants the right to vote they deserve whatever they get.

Post: dominos falling?? What if???

Carlton EllisPosted
  • Real Estate Consultant
  • Lansing, MI
  • Posts 117
  • Votes 32
Originally posted by Eddie Ziv:

It basically lay down the fact that the western economies are outsmart by the new economies who don't play by the free market rules. Primarily the emerging markets (China, India, etc). Those countries control the value of their currency, control their market and subsidize whatever they want to. Those market are completely controlled by governments.


Actually the Inidan Rupee is freely traded on foreign exchange currency markets. It's China that does not "float" the value of its currency on the open market.

Where these economies don't "Play by the rules" are in other areas, like the amount of equity a foreigner and hold in publically traded companies, the amount of control they have on imports to their countries', the difficulty in setting and doing business in these countries etc. The laws in India and China definite favor their citizens when it comes to business ownership, investment and trade moreso than most western European countries and the U.S.A.

Post: Home Prices Projected to Begin Rebound in 2011

Carlton EllisPosted
  • Real Estate Consultant
  • Lansing, MI
  • Posts 117
  • Votes 32
Originally posted by Peter Giardini:
The most important trend in my opinion will the unemployment rate. Once that rate reliably dips below 8% nationally and of course stabalizes in local markets then we will see housing demand increase and hopefully prices stablize.

Will they increase significantly... not until the "shadow" inventory is absorbed.


I agree with your basic premise but I think the number that is really going to move prices is 7% unemployment. I think many people have been so effected financially and emotionally by the current economic downturn that people are basically going to "hunker down" until they feel really secure the economy is headed in the right direction.

Post: Partnering in Deals - I do the work while my partner puts most of the cash

Carlton EllisPosted
  • Real Estate Consultant
  • Lansing, MI
  • Posts 117
  • Votes 32
Originally posted by S L:
Sorry if this question is repeated in the forum. I'm a first time investor who's looking to buy and flip.

I have a partner who is willing to put up cash (75% of the deal) and his role is basically as a financier while I do the work(finding the property and managing contractors).

So for example
100k house = 25k mine, 75k his
But I do almost all the work


1. How would I structure this contract for the profits?
-25%/75% (mine/his)
-35/65
-50/50

2. And would this be the same structure for the losses?

3. Any other tips that would be good to add?

Confused but optimistic,
-S


I think the key issue here is how much does your partner value your "work" contribution? If you have a good understanding and business relatonship where your partner truly understands and VALUES the contribution of your "Sweat Equity" then you shouldn't have a problem arriving at an agreement that is comfortable for both parties. Goof luck and I hope things work out for the best.

Post: Obama Fiddled While the oil gushed out.

Carlton EllisPosted
  • Real Estate Consultant
  • Lansing, MI
  • Posts 117
  • Votes 32
Originally posted by Tim Wieneke:
Originally posted by J Scott:
Yes, and had you read my next sentence, I go on to say that BP is responsible for the oil, the well and the clean-up. Even BP admits this, regardless of who is at fault.


BP has committed to the cleanup without reservations, but they have not admitted liability. I made the mistake of assigning liability to BP too early in another conversation on Facebook before looking deeper. Of course BP will commit today to the cleanup. Every oil company of any sort has cleanup reserves set aside for something like this. That's the priority. On the other hand, tomorrow will begin a bit of research into liability and subrogation. Then you'll find out who's really responsible despite all the rhetoric of today.



Did you watch "60 Minutes" on Sunday night? A worker on the Deep Horizon stated that the managers on the rig for Transocean were clearly overruled by managers from BP on several issues that impacted the safety of the drilling operation and sealing the well. I'm not saying that Transocean bears no liability. But if BP contracted Transocean for their rig and BP managers did in fact overrule Transocean managers in ways that impacted safety for the sake of expediency then BP definitely bears some liability for what happened.

I'm eager to here more about the events that actually led up to the explosion from other sources. But this looks like a classic case where safety took a back seat to profits.

Post: If you live in Texas...

Carlton EllisPosted
  • Real Estate Consultant
  • Lansing, MI
  • Posts 117
  • Votes 32
Originally posted by J Scott:
...beware that the government may be watching you from above pretty soon:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kS5vm149vGc

While perhaps there are some good uses for this technology, it seems like it could also be an opportunity for the government to start violating Texans' 4th Amendment rights...

Note that this thread has nothing to do with Obama, Bush, or Palin, so hopefully any discussion here can be non-partisan and kept on-topic...



Ask yourself if this is any different than having closed circuit T.V cameras on city streets? They already have them in just about every major city in the country.

If I was going to play devils advocate here I'd even go as far as saying having UAV with camera's may be more efficent and cost effective than having fix based closed circuit cameras.

And no I'm not in favor of unfettered police surveillance but the reality is that technology allows national security and law enforcement agencies access to people and personal information like never before. Unless there is a massive public outcry against it I don't see it changing.