Steve,
Thanks for asking a question I struggle with too. I see bad times coming – the same things you do. As this thread shows, it’s hard to know for certain how to protect your financial life since there are so many different opinions. Until the future arrives, we’ll never know who’s right here. Although I worked hard over the last several years to try to understand the right way to invest my money to build a (hopefully early) retirement fund, I’m not an economist or a millionaire. With that in mind, here are my thoughts. It’s long, but I would love to hear your comments and ideas.
I started investing diligently with IRA's/401k's with the plan that they would be about $3M at retirement so that I could pull out 3% a year as a salary. This was the first exposure I had to the stock market. As I've watched the balances seesaw, I've learned that these accounts aren't a sure path to financial freedom. Good to help diversify and forced savings, but I don't have a lot of control over the outcome. Fund managers more in the know than I am and emotional trading by amateur investors like me determine my stocks' value. My focus going forward is to hire a financial advisor a wealthy acquaintance uses to help me invest these funds in something that will hopefully protect the initial investment as well as provide a steady return. I think I'll look to invest in stocks related to healthcare, basic food, and elderly housing – funds instead of individual stocks. The accounts will never be at the $3M mark and I see now that they will be too volatile to count on a consistent income anyway. But when I can take the money out without penalty, they can give me either seed money or backup funds for a business that can produce more cash flow.
I’m now focusing on finding different classes of assets that are more within my control that will produce monthly income in excess of what I need. When the real estate market took a nose dive years ago, I bought several rental properties and financed them through a local bank. I plan to buy several more while the prices are still depressed. Cash flow is king, but it’s not the only thing I’m looking for. While I’m not counting on appreciation, I’m also looking for marketability with these newer ones - good 3 bedrooms in a blue collar, good school district area. I hope to have most paid off by the tenants within ten years. I can then use the equity as collateral for other businesses, sell them to conventional buyers, or sell them on land contracts or wraps.
Although I know I'm better off than some, like you, I don't feel totally secure. Even with a good real estate portfolio, I know there are downsides. People can double up or stay with relatives if times turn really bad driving vacancies up and rents down. Higher unemployment can bring more evictions, lost rent, and turnover costs. Then comes the EPA's lead laws, the SAFE Act, the ever present lawsuit threat, and rising interest rates which all affect the real estate I'm investing in now. I don't think there's a perfect investment that is totally safe from all the ways the government can muck it up. And, I'm angry with the politicians that seem to thrive on dissension and don't seem to have the ability or will to deal with the problems our economy is facing. I plan to just try to not put my eggs all in one basket any more. Use Weiss ratings to check out the banks and insurance companies I use to hopefully avoid companies that are possibly heading towards trouble. Keep enough emergency cash instead of relying on HELOC's which can disappear overnight. And, reduce the amount I need each month by downsizing my home when I can, reduce my debt, and avoid costly indulgences like brand new cars. But even though I think we're heading for some tough times, I know that I can't stop investing. There's still great rental housing to buy. I'm also working on positioning myself to take advantage of some even better deals that I think will be here in a year or two. Good luck and I'd like to hear more of your ideas.