I wanted to circle back and post on where this is ultimately landing several years later for the benefit of members. There is definitely a treasure trove of lessons to learn.
I haven't run the full numbers yet, but I think I might end up making some money on the project. I will live in the property and rent out my fiance's house, so that's a win. I think the weak link in this project was that this was not a beginner job to take on and I did not surround myself with any non-biased advocates, or put another way, anyone knowledgeable who didn't stand to gain financially from the deal. Lender, realtor, 203k inspector, contractor, etc.
There was a dollop of being green, a dash of people standing to make money on the deal motivated to ensure it happened, and a heaping scoop of the house being in much worse condition than I could have possibly imagined. What would have been helpful would be an inspection that said here are the things that are condition issues and here is what they will cost to fix. What I had was such a report which only covered like 40% of the known issues and was about 10% financially accurate (painting the entire house was apparently going to cost $300 for instance). And none of this included fun bonus items like foundation cracks behind finished basement walls.
In the end, the house is gorgeous, I paid a ton of interest, and its only now nearly complete. The strategy that worked, really my only one, was to learn how to do almost all of the work. I built a team consisting of an engineer, contractor (for anything I couldn't do myself), and other subs. I essentially became the project manager. Since I couldn't get paid directly, this required clever personal debt leveraging (401k loans, personal loans, family loans, etc.). I was able to extract some of the money from the 203k to pay for major work done by the contractor.
The simple fact, however, is that hiring a new contractor to do all of the work for the whole property after I fired the old one was completely out of the question financially and exceeded the budget by about 300-400%. And it took me months of looking for new ones, vetting them, getting bids, etc. to realize this.
My key pieces of advice for anyone considering a 203k would be to:
1. Take along an independent, prepaid inspector not party to the deal or other trusted person to actually price out the renovation and to do the work correctly, professionally, and without cutting corners or being sub par. With this kind of loan, you need to be able to do the work cheaply enough with the allotted funds from the lender based on the ARV. If the repair cost ends up being multiples of the buy price OR the ARV, you're in trouble (my case), so walk away from that deal.
2. Have an extremely strong relationship with the contractor. If they walk off the job, file for BK, can't finish because they're incompetent (my case), or otherwise won't do the job you aren't left with much recourse and will have to find someone else to do the job who may come in and say it will actually cost Y, not X (my case).
3. Being handy with repairs will save you money. No, you are not supposed to do work on a 203k as the homeowner but in practice the lender may turn a blind eye if you aren't requesting payment for it and its a smaller job.
4. You are turning over ownership of the whole project to other people. The financing, the contract work, the inspector, and you don't have much control and if things don't go smoothly, there isn't much guidance or help on how to proceed (see my earlier posts).
5. Labor is expensive, materials are cheap, engineers charge like lawyers.
I can follow up with anyone if you find yourself considering 203k's or need help with anything. I'm sure most people have successful projects but sometimes a massive failure is a great way to learn massive amounts.