All Forum Posts by: James Dobbins

Kenneth, there is a 3bd/2bs house for rent 3 blocks north of this property on the rental market for $1,600. That's your competition. Take a look at Craigslist for other rentals in that area and what they rent for per bedroom. Maybe call a few of them and see how willing the owner is ready to reduce rent. That should give you a fair idea of how soft the market is right now. May I ask why you need to rent it out first? Are you hoping for an immediate renter? Because the vacancy rate is already quite high in this city and likely only to move higher as people are evicted after job losses in the next few months. More vacancies mean more competition against your $2,000.   

cut and run 

@Diana Lugala I would start by reading Nassim Taleb's Antifragile. That book will provide a good base understanding of risk. 

No thanks. I never sell real estate. But if anyone needs to borrow cash, call me :)

The 2020 downturn is many orders of magnitude bigger than '08. Come on, you know that's true. Sellers are still living in the 2017 boom era. Get back to me this time next year and let's see the reality of the market. 

I believe 50% is being generous. If we don't recover in the next two years, I expect 80% deflation in housing. Anyone who has been investing through the past 3 recessions wouldn't be shocked at this. The economy was rolling over pre-COVID. COVID just compressed the recession process into weeks instead of months. San Antonio, specifically, had a rental vacancy of what? 6-7% before the crisis? Landlords will be slashing rents all over just to keep whatever tenants they have now. When the city lifts the hold on evictions, forget about it! 

COVID-19 crisis is not temporary. It is a permanent feature of life from now on. Yes, houses are selling, they will always sell, but those who are paying list or near list are going to be very disappointed. We are only at the beginning of this downturn and already there was a 33% jump in residential rental delinquencies nationwide. 

Basic economics and price narratives. Texas is not immune to a global depression. 

30% unemployment, oil crisis, a crash in rents and a mortgage crisis = 50% price cuts

$10K is simply not enough of a down payment. Banks are scared af right now and will likely want to have a more significant amount. Also, have you seen the news lately? 10 million people applied for unemployment in less than 14 days. The likelihood of falling house prices and more stock is growing. Wait until you move here and then look for a place to live. Shopping online for a house you can't see in person, and in a market that is a growing risk, could sink your finances for decades is unwise. 

If you can't put 20% down, you can't afford the property.

 My comment was a possible reason for falling appraisals and future market outlook. The original post is about change in time.