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All Forum Posts by: Account Closed

Account Closed has started 2 posts and replied 26 times.

Post: Airbnb Arbitrage: Renting vs Buying

Account ClosedPosted
  • Rental Property Investor
  • Devon, PA
  • Posts 28
  • Votes 22
Originally posted by @Joe Splitrock:
Originally posted by @Account Closed:
Originally posted by @Joe Splitrock:
Originally posted by @Account Closed:
Originally posted by @Joe Splitrock:
Originally posted by @Account Closed:

I tried to explain using the attorney example. I understand you can run it from anywhere, but what if you unplugged for six months? A business would run without you for 6 months. Airbnb requires hosts paying daily attention to the business, which is why it is a job.

In order for a business like this to sell for millions, it would require millions in net income. That would require hundreds or maybe thousands of units. You would be managing contracts with hundreds of landlords and booking thousands of reservations. I guess this is possible, but when I hear about people doing AirBNB arbitrage by renting units, it is self managing a hand full of units. 

Do you have some links to stories of people selling a business like this for millions, without owning any of the units? I am genuinely curious about this. It seems strange someone would want to buy a real estate business that has no physical assets. 

Actually no one I know has personally "written" about it so I stand corrected... That's why I'm trying to shed light on this topic because so many people could get into this but they don't know what's possible. 

 Ah... ok. Yes, if you stopped paying attention to it for six months it would be some problems for sure, so would an apartment. However with the relationship between me and my co-host or portfolio manager that's actually debatable. I didn't realize when you said "passive income" you were leaning more towards the "mailbox money" hype form of passive income that doesn't really exist outside of being a limited partner in a real estate deal. But even that's not passive my friend as you need to find, vet and establish a relationship with the GP. 

As for selling in the millions you are a little off on the numbers. So the current industry multiplier for the hotel & recreation industry around 10.51 EV/EBITDA. If you're making $350,000 EBITDA with a 3.7x multiple you've got yourself a valuation of $1,292,000. You see income, like NOI in commercial "IS VALUE = IS EQUITY = IS NET WORTH = IS SELLABLE". It's an asset. You mentioned that the business doesn't own any assets... again, not true. It may not own physical property assets, which I would argue are actually liabilities, and if you don't think so then go ask your banker whether your house is listed as an asset or a liability on their ledger. It's an asset to them, the lender, and a liability to you the owner. But are your contracts not assets? Can they not be sold? Can your portfolio not be sold? Is an entity separate from yourself that produces steady income which can be bought and sold not an asset?

Contemplate this: 

Passive income is very possible in buy and hold real estate. I have tenants that I have not had contact with in over a year. I get electronic payment every month. Of course things do come up, but on average it is once a year per property. If I had a property manager, it would be mailbox money. 

You said you can sell it for millions. That is a little different than one million. Still even at a million that is a lot. How may properties does that $350K represent - like 200-300 rented properties? That is a lot of leases, a lot of guests and a lot of landlords to deal with. It is a job for either you or someone else. If you hire people, it cuts into revenue. 

The other issue is who will buy a business like this? If I wanted into the hotel industry, I can buy an entire hotel building for $1,275,000 or better yet, I can use leverage and buy a $5M hotel. I would actually own the building, which gives me tax benefit and an underlying physical asset. I don't see banks lending money to buy an AirBNB business that has no assets. Contracts can be considered assets, but in this case the bank will view it as a liability. I guess that leaves a cash buyer that wants a full time job.

Maybe I am wrong, that is why I asked for some examples of people who have done this. If you are grossing $350K with STR that are rented units and someone is willing to buy it for $1.3M, I would jump at that offer. I just see better ways to invest that kind of money.

Interesting topic. I am curious how many rented units are you managing? Are you doing all the guest interaction yourself? I will admit I am not an expert in this, so I am genuinely interested.

 You can gross $50k with one unit. So $350k gross is like 6 properties.

You can automate almost everything with software and electronic locks. For cleaning just hire a cleaner, and for customer service you can hire a virtual assistant.

You are not reading the conversation. The question was how many properties for $350K EBITDA (basically net earnings). In other words, after you pay rent for the property, cleaning expenses, virtual assistant, AirBNB service fee and any other operating expenses. That is not going to be $50K per property. Even if you could net $50K per property, it would take 7 properties to equal $350K, not 6. Finding 7 properties that net that much seems challenging, because high demand STR markets are also high rent for LTR.

That is the point, that expenses cut into your margin. So maybe you gross $350K, then pay out $300K in expenses and the net is only $50K. Then you need 49 properties to net $350K. That is 49 leases and thousands of guests annually. I am not saying it isn't possible, but hardly autopilot (despite what the 4 hour work week told you). 

The harsher reality is that you are not acquiring any physical asset. So there is no asset appreciation. You are just banking on a good STR future. The only exit strategy is to break your lease and close up shop.

 You wrote “Maybe I am wrong, that is why I asked for some examples of people who have done this. If you are grossing $350K...”

I don’t care about asset appreciation only cash flow.

Post: Airbnb Arbitrage: Renting vs Buying

Account ClosedPosted
  • Rental Property Investor
  • Devon, PA
  • Posts 28
  • Votes 22
Originally posted by @Ken Latchers:

Like much of the above, this is like the "up to 80%" sale. Good luck finding that on something you actually want. In my market, you'll be lucky to get half that gross. And the automate works but not always. Same with a virtual assistant. The fluffy trite presentation of the stuff as presented misleads a lot of newbies. Cannot put vacation rental on autopilot. Cleaners don't show up or go out of business.  Guests want recommendations or cannot find the place  and you need to be there to get them  in.  Your automated lock fails.  The power goes down. Handyman won't come when you need him.  The last guests trashed the place  and the new guests are standing in the kitchen wondering what to do. Your virtual assistant cannot do these things. Get a property manager, and there goes 30% of the gross.

"You can gross $50k with one unit. So $350k gross is like 6 properties.

You can automate almost everything with software and electronic locks. For cleaning just hire a cleaner, and for customer service you can hire a virtual assistant." 

Those numbers don’t apply to every market. I thought that could go without saying.

Post: Airbnb Arbitrage: Renting vs Buying

Account ClosedPosted
  • Rental Property Investor
  • Devon, PA
  • Posts 28
  • Votes 22
Originally posted by @Joe Splitrock:
Originally posted by @Account Closed:
Originally posted by @Joe Splitrock:
Originally posted by @Account Closed:

I tried to explain using the attorney example. I understand you can run it from anywhere, but what if you unplugged for six months? A business would run without you for 6 months. Airbnb requires hosts paying daily attention to the business, which is why it is a job.

In order for a business like this to sell for millions, it would require millions in net income. That would require hundreds or maybe thousands of units. You would be managing contracts with hundreds of landlords and booking thousands of reservations. I guess this is possible, but when I hear about people doing AirBNB arbitrage by renting units, it is self managing a hand full of units. 

Do you have some links to stories of people selling a business like this for millions, without owning any of the units? I am genuinely curious about this. It seems strange someone would want to buy a real estate business that has no physical assets. 

Actually no one I know has personally "written" about it so I stand corrected... That's why I'm trying to shed light on this topic because so many people could get into this but they don't know what's possible. 

 Ah... ok. Yes, if you stopped paying attention to it for six months it would be some problems for sure, so would an apartment. However with the relationship between me and my co-host or portfolio manager that's actually debatable. I didn't realize when you said "passive income" you were leaning more towards the "mailbox money" hype form of passive income that doesn't really exist outside of being a limited partner in a real estate deal. But even that's not passive my friend as you need to find, vet and establish a relationship with the GP. 

As for selling in the millions you are a little off on the numbers. So the current industry multiplier for the hotel & recreation industry around 10.51 EV/EBITDA. If you're making $350,000 EBITDA with a 3.7x multiple you've got yourself a valuation of $1,292,000. You see income, like NOI in commercial "IS VALUE = IS EQUITY = IS NET WORTH = IS SELLABLE". It's an asset. You mentioned that the business doesn't own any assets... again, not true. It may not own physical property assets, which I would argue are actually liabilities, and if you don't think so then go ask your banker whether your house is listed as an asset or a liability on their ledger. It's an asset to them, the lender, and a liability to you the owner. But are your contracts not assets? Can they not be sold? Can your portfolio not be sold? Is an entity separate from yourself that produces steady income which can be bought and sold not an asset?

Contemplate this: 

Passive income is very possible in buy and hold real estate. I have tenants that I have not had contact with in over a year. I get electronic payment every month. Of course things do come up, but on average it is once a year per property. If I had a property manager, it would be mailbox money. 

You said you can sell it for millions. That is a little different than one million. Still even at a million that is a lot. How may properties does that $350K represent - like 200-300 rented properties? That is a lot of leases, a lot of guests and a lot of landlords to deal with. It is a job for either you or someone else. If you hire people, it cuts into revenue. 

The other issue is who will buy a business like this? If I wanted into the hotel industry, I can buy an entire hotel building for $1,275,000 or better yet, I can use leverage and buy a $5M hotel. I would actually own the building, which gives me tax benefit and an underlying physical asset. I don't see banks lending money to buy an AirBNB business that has no assets. Contracts can be considered assets, but in this case the bank will view it as a liability. I guess that leaves a cash buyer that wants a full time job.

Maybe I am wrong, that is why I asked for some examples of people who have done this. If you are grossing $350K with STR that are rented units and someone is willing to buy it for $1.3M, I would jump at that offer. I just see better ways to invest that kind of money.

Interesting topic. I am curious how many rented units are you managing? Are you doing all the guest interaction yourself? I will admit I am not an expert in this, so I am genuinely interested.

 You can gross $50k with one unit. So $350k gross is like 6 properties.

You can automate almost everything with software and electronic locks. For cleaning just hire a cleaner, and for customer service you can hire a virtual assistant.

Post: Is A College Degree Worthless These Days???

Account ClosedPosted
  • Rental Property Investor
  • Devon, PA
  • Posts 28
  • Votes 22
Originally posted by @Account Closed:
Originally posted by @Account Closed:

Knowing what I know now about real estate I probably would have skipped college. 

Do you think that your degree has helped you at all?

All I know is that the only thing I've used in the real world from school is basic bath, Spanish and PE, lol. 

 Yes it helped me get a high paying job that I’m using to invest in my Airbnb business. However, I could have just started working after highschool and probably had more capital to invest by now.

 Interesting... have student loans been a problem?

 It’s really not that that expensive if you go to a public school. I paid off all my student loans by the time I was 25.

Post: Airbnb Arbitrage: Renting vs Buying

Account ClosedPosted
  • Rental Property Investor
  • Devon, PA
  • Posts 28
  • Votes 22

Another point that no one has brought up is that you can quit your job a lot faster with arbitrage units - this is a big motivation for me as I actively dislike my current day job.

Buying for appreciation could be a longer term play, but it’s not going to help you dramatically change  your employment situation in a short period of time.

I would also like to add that I am pursuing arbitrage units in an area where single family homes can cost as much as 3 million dollars. I’ve bought in a totally different part of the country where homes cost 200k. I agree that the market should dictate where each type of strategy is employed.

Post: Airbnb Hosting Hacks For More Success

Account ClosedPosted
  • Rental Property Investor
  • Devon, PA
  • Posts 28
  • Votes 22
Originally posted by @Account Closed:

I remember encountering this very situation when we were starting out with Airbnb. Right on with the minimum number of days and no instant booking. Keeps last minute bookings from happening too. Can't always accommodate a guest when it comes as a short notice.

 You can set Airbnb to not accept booking if they are not a certain number of days in advance.

Post: Is A College Degree Worthless These Days???

Account ClosedPosted
  • Rental Property Investor
  • Devon, PA
  • Posts 28
  • Votes 22
Originally posted by @Account Closed:
Originally posted by @Account Closed:

Knowing what I know now about real estate I probably would have skipped college. 

Do you think that your degree has helped you at all?

All I know is that the only thing I've used in the real world from school is basic bath, Spanish and PE, lol. 

 Yes it helped me get a high paying job that I’m using to invest in my Airbnb business. However, I could have just started working after highschool and probably had more capital to invest by now.

Post: Airbnb Arbitrage: Renting vs Buying

Account ClosedPosted
  • Rental Property Investor
  • Devon, PA
  • Posts 28
  • Votes 22
Originally posted by @Account Closed:
Originally posted by @Account Closed:

I bought a property to rent on Airbnb recently and wish I fully understood the arbitrage model before I bought it. 

I’m currently in the process of setting up an arbitrage unit and will probably sell the house I bought in a few years after I’ve built up enough equity to make selling worth it.

 Hopefully you can at the very least break even on it. 

What are the main reasons you now prefer arbitrage vs buying?

 I’m cashflowing 2k/month on it after expenses so it’s not that bad all things considered. But I’m in a very special market that is perfect for Airbnb. 

The reason I have regret is that I now understand how much faster you can expand with the arbitrage model. Also if things ever slow down in my market I’m stuck with the property until I can sell....

Post: Is A College Degree Worthless These Days???

Account ClosedPosted
  • Rental Property Investor
  • Devon, PA
  • Posts 28
  • Votes 22

Knowing what I know now about real estate I probably would have skipped college.

Post: Airbnb Arbitrage: Renting vs Buying

Account ClosedPosted
  • Rental Property Investor
  • Devon, PA
  • Posts 28
  • Votes 22

I bought a property to rent on Airbnb recently and wish I fully understood the arbitrage model before I bought it. 

I’m currently in the process of setting up an arbitrage unit and will probably sell the house I bought in a few years after I’ve built up enough equity to make selling worth it.