All Forum Posts by: Jack Hou

@Edward Liu So glad to hear your story between 2007 - 2011! That IS exactly what brings me here and asked for opinions! I've played out the Sell now and Rent a few years scenario in my head but I couldn't get the math to work out. Here's the basics and please challenge me coz I'd love for it to work:

If the idea is to Sell by EOY 2020, rent for 5 years, and use the money to invest for returns ( cash flows, appreciation or both ) 

- Given the 2% max annual drop on my home value ( worst prediction I've seen ), the lost is about $20k/yr. This means I'll make 100k more if I sell now instead of 2025. 

- Basic rent for a decent home at good school district ( I have a young family and I'm not considering house hacking atm ), it'll cost me minimum 3k/month. This means the rent for 5 years will set me back 180k

This means I'm starting at a negative 80k if I sell and rent for 5 years to invest. Unless the housing completely collapsed which I doubt in this area, I can't make sense of this strategy.

Do you see anything wrong with the basic logic up there? Love to be proven otherwise. 

@Darius Ogloza Awesome! Super glad to hear flip story in the Bay area. 

@Amit M. Data wont lie, super useful chart! 

Thank you all for the discussion, and curious where else everyone is looking at in terms of widen the search radius to areas that usually takes 1-2 hr to commute. 

This is purely anecdotal, but several friends in tech has moved further out to areas like Discovery Bay, Sac, Sausalito, Santa Cruz area, even Tahoe. I read articles that those market are gaining as well. 

@Andrew Hogan Good points on stretching the investment dollars. My capital is not working at all and I'm actively changing that. I plan to get HELOC out of it and split it 2 ways:

1. Majority will become the downpayment for next home in 2021 as the family has outgrown the space.

2. Small chuck will be used as downpayment for an additional investment property, which is still unclear on strategy. I've been investing only in CA ( has another buy and hold, currently long term rental in Palm Spring ) but has always been intrigued with out of state opportunity. Will reach out through DM and see your thoughts! 

@Libby Truesdell Buy and hold has always been my play but it's really good to hear the same thing from you. Another signal I've been looking out is major development and tech expansion - Not sure if you see the same in the city, but even with the pandemic I still see FAANG continue snatching up property in south bay for future campus, and residential developments are still being planned and built. I'm relying on those being good indicators that the Bay Area faith is still there.   

@Ana Marie B. Nope. W-2 job is as steady as it can be. Good to hear you're also buy-n-hold. 

Hey all!

First time post but I have been following BP for quite some time. I'm facing this dilemma of whether or not I should hold on to my million dollar, unrealistically tiny town house. Here's the situation:  

Situation

Own a townhouse since 2016, in the booming silicon valley town - Sunnyvale. Mortgage is 90% paid off. Seen the peak appreciation 2 years ago where my gain would be close to 40%, now it's came down to 30-ish% and dropping. The property was meant to attract young tech workers with <1 kids, however given the new COVID remote work situation there seems to be less need to live "close" to work

Strategy 

The play has always been holding it and generate cash flow once as we move out to a larger space and better school house in 2021. Was betting on the continue tech growth in the area for future appreciation as well. I have a full time job so my effort in RE is always somewhat secondary / passive, not looking at strategy as sell it and obtain 3 BRRR.

Questions

- Do you guys see the housing price in bay area evens out with the remote work future? Understand this can be total opinion but it's ok.

- Is sell now the best way to maximize the gain? Or would you recommend holding and generating cash flow as everything in the bay area seem to have generous return long term. 

- What's your play for the next 6 - 18 months? Banking on the dip and enter the market? Would love to hear some thoughts! 

Appreciate the feedback and looking forward to the discussion!