Originally posted by Lynn M.:
I, personally, think he's out there drumming up interest in the bulk sale program the government just announced. Not sure why he would do that, favor to President Obama maybe, but strange that he's saying all those things the same day they announce the first 2500 bulk sales program.
Shack!
Why's he doing it? He owns a very large chunk of Wells Fargo. I looked at banks' balance sheets quite a bit in 2006/7/8. Wells had a ton of negative amortization loans on their books - mostly concentrated in CA. Wachovia's books were worse and it wasn't any mystery as to why they had to be bought by Wells - for all practical purposes, Wachovia was insolvent.
I don't know the current shape of Wells' mortgage holdings. Unless they were able to sell their crap mortgages to the Fed, Wells is a potential ticking time bomb if residential real estate prices continue to slide.
If you look at Wells' business model, they make a large chunk of their profits originating mortgages. How do you get qualified people to step up and start buying real estate? I dunno ... maybe have Buffett announce on CNBC that now's a great time to buy residential real estate?
Buffett looks like he's trying to help put a floor under residential real estate prices. I've followed Case Shiller closely for almost a decade and it keeps moving slowly lower. Not a huge drop like in the last few years; more a long slow death by 1000 cuts. Every market's local and there are some areas of the country that will do well but there are a lot of housing cesspools out there (Las Vegas, Phoenix, Tucson, Orlando come to mind).
Don't get me wrong; I think that there are some areas of the country that are great opportunities to buy and rent out residential real estate. You can probably even make money in some of the worst locations if you have a very long time horizon and intimately know the local rental market.