All Forum Posts by: Grant Tyler Short

Does anyone else see the irony in what has happened to Brandon? Specifically, I recall the first appearance our RE lord and savior Grant Cardone made on the BP podcast where he, Brandon and Josh engaged in a heated debate on episode 250 ~40 minute mark where Grant specifically says it's flat out stupid to buy a home. Brandon disagrees, stating family structure and security reasons, conceding sure if your life goal is maximize your money, go big and buy multifamily and acquire units Genghis Khan style, but there's more important things in life.

My takeaway from Brandon in the 7 years since this podcast is, this specific conversation in episode 250 broke Brandon's brain. Since this episode, Brandon's strategy did a complete 180. Previously, he bought homes as a small mom and pop landlord the old school way, maybe a few duplexes or quads or small <10-20 unit apartments, scaling at a reasonable and responsible pace. After the Cardone interview, his primary motivation seemed to be to replicate Cardone's model, become a syndicator, collect syndication fees, screw the LTR strategy, with dreams and aspirations to acquire and manage over $1B in RE, advocating for the destruction of neighborhoods via rent by the room strategies (since all other viable models produce no yield due to FOMO/newbies jumping in/rates/prices) while selling personalized coaching services while running a prosperity gospel bible study group on the side. The level of hypocrisy and shape shifting that this once great podcast host has made really just made him extremely unlikable to me. It's been a fascinating arch to observe from afar and seems ironic to me.

Fascinating, so if the big institutional investors are not finding yield in RE and are being reflected in this data set as net sellers, what makes you think small mom and pop unsophisticated Joes and Janes will? Sure, niches, one offs, got it. Not the entire market.

Unless you want folks to buy as primary residence, okay, but 2022-2025 is historically all time unaffordable.

You are complaining about speculation in stock market. Valuations detached from earnings.

Yet you ignore speculation in the housing market. Valuations detached from earnings / incomes / current market demand (hello rising days on market, nice to see you again :) ), and FULL of speculation. Every one and their mother is a RE investor professional with a beautifully curated linkedin and profile pic. 10X bro

Investing in the west end? KY native here.

Only if you want your properties in the crosshairs of nightly shootings/murders/BLM riots. I'm sure if a Tesla were ever spotted there it was shot up or burned.

Good luck though

$3,500 ownership payment in Gilber/Chandler + a massive lump sum down payment vs $2,000 to rent in Scottsdale with cold plunge, sauna, steam room, himalayan salt room, and plenty of botoxed duck lip neighbors and no responsibilities + able to invest the $1,500/month in an appreciating market (SPY, TQQQs, your favorite fart coin).

But equity but equity. Okay, pencil it out over 30 years. Even with rents increasing at a rate of 2-3% per annum (in an actively declining rent market today) vs stable mortgage payment above, the later wins.

Buying at the peak is never a good idea, even if you went to a Grant Cardone seminar and wear a 10X t shirt at night. 

The number of underwater properties (purchased within the past 4 years) in PHX is astonishing. Browsing through listings, it's like shooting fish in a barrel finding them, especially in the condo/townhome market with agents rumbling about increased HOA fees in some complexes due to concerns about reserves for cap X

Cromford market index showing 9% higher supply compared to historical norms. Buyer demand is down 27% compared to normal and falling daily. Some of my non RE friends who are looking to purchase continue to be shown homes by agents claiming "the market is still hot." What horrible fiduciaries. They don't even know their own data in their own industry. Or...they do and are lying to get a commission check.

Curious how 3 year and 5 year ARM loans taken Q3/Q4 2022 and onward will impact continued supply additions to the market. List prices have fallen significantly. Sales prices are starting to follow. That whole "date the rate" narrative is actively being challenged.

The inventory interpretation is an interesting one. I do continue to see folks look at a static market inventory number and make a claim about that static number at X point in time. 

In AZ, for the past 24 months, many realtors have continued to state inventory is at an all time low. Month after month after month, completely ignoring the massive, increasing, rate of change of new inventory growth as a result of both 1) new listing growth month over month and 2) decreases in purchase demand. It's analogous to a train accelerating from a dead stop that is increasing in acceleration but an outside observer  stating that at X point in time the speed is still "slow." I would caution, don't ignore the acceleration variable. It paints a more holistic picture. In AZ, inventory has 6Xd since the nadir of pandemic buying frenzy. Grant Cardone may be pleased once inventory 10Xs I suppose!

Cromford market index for Phoenix valley metro is the lowest since 08/09 and continuing to sink lower.  Supply is indeed normal CMI supply = 99.4. Demand index is 80 so 20% less demand. Inventory levels have jumped from 17000 to 26000 year over year for current month while transaction volume is about on par with last year which was slightly below 2023 which was significantly below average. 

AZ MLS listings are frozen and there are plenty of examples of new listings now under water from a 2022-2024 purchase price. All while MF unit deliverables to the market for 2025 are going to increase MF unit supply by 7% just in current year alone. Tough market for investors or primary residence occupants looking to upgrade unless your in luxury market

All good questions from other posters.

1) Is this a primary residence or secondary investment?

2) If secondary, do you have a contingency plan to fund this asset's negative carry? I.E. if reliant on a W2, what do you plan to do if you lose that W2 salary position?

3) Are you counting on appreciation? In general, RE realized the largest appreciation rate post pandemic due to easy money spurring investor demand, and depending on the market, the mass wave of demand entering into the STR market. Many STR bull markets are now equilibrating however the run up in home prices with valuations based on old STR projections/interest rates yet to wash out. Is your property impacted by this market dynamic?

4) Are you in a negative rental appreciation market? For example, in AZ per flexMLS data, the rise in the number of rentals has increased from 2,000 units on 1/1/24 to nearly 4,300 listings, not counting the explosion in supply FS on the MLS. This has caused an 18% decrease in "asking" rental rates since March of this year. That is significant. Is your market vulnerable to this? Or better yet, are you prepared to buy with a negative carry where that negative carry can grow in magnitude?

So you think it's wise to advise someone to enter into an agreement where they have $606 after tax dollars to spend on the rest of their living expenses?

I suppose if your plan is to scoop up his foreclosed property later on. In that case, I see the angle.