All Forum Posts by: Gordon Forbes

@Jim K.

Jim, you are the only person who can make me look like Mary Poppins! 

Somehow it is comforting to know that someone is even more of a crepehanger than I. 

But I agree with your succinct assesment of the human condition so now I am more depressed than ever.

Mission accomplished Jim, your work here is complete, job well done. <sarcasm emogi>

@Jonathan Twombly

Addict: "I'm dieing here man, I need some of that good sh*t. I got dollars, euros, some bitcoin..."

Dealer: "That crap is worthless, give me something with value!"

Addict: "I got loads of Tesla stock, even a little Amazon. Come on show some pity man, I got the shakes and sweats and I'm in need! Ok ok, how about some gold, oil futures, or a duplex in Houston? Anything, anything you want, just sell me some dope."

Dealer: "You got any Honey?"

(Dear reader, please insert a politically correct appology here if I have offended anyone who takes drugs, makes drugs, packages drugs, transports drugs, sells drugs, launders the profits from drugs, or runs a drug treatment program.)

And Jonathan, sorry, I couldn't resist. That little scene just popped into my head...

The mention of wine reminds me of a story about the late Malcom Forbes. He purchased the world's most expensive bottle of wine. A multi million dollar bottle with provenance that it was estate bottled by Thomas Jefferson. To show off his acquisition he put it on a pedestal, cork up, under a glass dome, with lights to brightly illuminate his prize. So very quickly he was the owner of the world's most expensive bottle of vinegar!

We now return you back to the topic at hand. Hope you have enjoyed the side trip.

That's some really great stuff. If only I hadn't dropped my crystal ball...

@Joe and valuations only looking high because I remember 30 cent gasoline. That is soooo true. But I also remember that the insane valuations of the dot com stocks in 2000 were suppoed to be the "new normal". I was working on Wall Street when the Dow broke 3000. Everybody bought a new car, good times were rolling. If the Dow went back to 3000 everyone would jump out a window. What is so fundamentaly different between 1991 (the Dark Ages to Millennials) and now? Other than some creeping inflation the only thing I see is all the Boomers who were pouring into the market. That would be the same Boomers who are now starting to sell in their retirement years. Even if the market wasn't overheated from a very long bull trend the basics of supply and demand and demographics scare me that a lot of retirees are needing to sell their stocks soon. But.... I'v been waiting for the market to tank for a long time now and its way too easy to get old, moribund, and cynical. 

@Ian. Yep. I'm right in there with that line of reasoning. I just hate being so pessimistic, especially being pessimistic for so dang long. It's like knowing that the bridge is out down the road somewhere. Yet it feels like all the alternative roads are dead ends. But you make a good point about the dangers of being too pessimistic and I needed to hear that. Plus, being pessimistic makes me grumpy in the morning.

Someone previously mentioned some passive investments. Oh to be an Accrdited Investor! I used to think that anyone complaining that "the rich get richer" and "it takes money to make money" was just whinning. Now that I see, but cannot participate in, the investments available to Accredited Investors I'm whinning too. However, the very rules meant to keep me and the "ignorant masses" safe from ourselves now set up those same "financially illiterate" to be preyed upon by the Regulation A+ proponents. Title 2 investments for accredited investors have more sec oversight than the tier 1 and 2 that is offered to the "rabble" (it seems to me).

I am definately going to check out Ian's crowd funding reviews. Some of the things I've read elsewhere indicate the luster is gone from Reg A+ while accredited investors still get the cream of the crop Reg D offerings.

Wow, even my dog doesn't whine as much as I am today. Thanks all for the advice, ideas, and encouragement.

Thank you all for your thoughts. I used to be so optimistic. Now?, Grumpy old man. 

Regarding Mary and waiting to sell at the peak: I am reminded of the words of Baron Rothschild when asked the secret of his success. He said "...I always sell too soon."  I agree with you, Mary, that now is too soon, which is why I want to sell before it's too late.

Regarding Robert and gold rising when real estate falls: Well, sort of. While the 20% to 30% gains for a few years during a crisis, such as in 2000 and 2008, seem like a hedge I'm disillusioned with gold. When one accounts for inflation (hey kids, google that word) the buying power of an ounce of gold from 30 years ago to today is only double. So "double my money in 30 years" just isn't enough ROI while holding gold waiting for it to spike up 30% in a crisis while my stocks and real estate dive 50% for example. That scenario does however leave me enough money to drown my sorrows in whiskey. But only after I pay taxes on the windfall gains in gold that I sell at its peak while unable to offset that income with the paper losses on my real estate because only a fool sells at the bottom. So then I wait for real estate to take 25 years to recover its losses. In our last "big" recession real estate recovered in only 10 years. It took 25 years to recover after the 1928 depression. I'm reminded of how my grandfather decided it was better to let people live in his rentals for free versus having them empty and vandalized. It really was that bad in the 1930's. Those "gratefull" tenants then tore up the floorboards and anything else that would burn in order to not freeze to death during winter. Nobody had any money.

Sorry I'm rambling.... anybody still reading?

Regarding Jim and his sick sense of humor: yeah, I'm with ya. Let's take a chemistry course and go "Breaking Bad" and sell drugs till we go to jail. At least then we'll have 3 meals a day and all the sex we don't want!

Regarding Aaron and diversification: I agree. That approach has worked for a long time. It has even held up pretty well during the numerous "corrections" we've had along the way.  But a rising tide raises all boats. We've had a 70 year overall economic expansion.  I'm wanting to leave the party before the hangover hits. But there isn't anywhere else to go.

Regarding Michael and Crypto profits. You rock. I missed that boat. Hope you paid your taxes because the IRS just forced Coinbase, and other exchanges, to give them all transaction data. Plus, they announced they have the ability to backtrack the bitcoin blockchain and trace the money. Hope you made your killing in Monero which is currently (temporarily) untraceable. I only sound bitter because I am so jealous. Bitcoin at $1, me: "that is so stupid". Bitcoin at $1,000, me: "the end is near. Bitcoin at $20,000, me: "I'm an idiot". Bitcoin at $7,800 today, me: "sure, that makes me feel better... not".

Regarding Paul and selling options: I do think that is a good strategy. The only way I see is to be pretty delta neutral. Buffet's quip about how the market can be irrational longer than you have money comes to mind. Its great to be short volatility until it isn't. It's also tough to sell premium at a profit when the vix is 14 (forever it seems). Then it's tough to go all in when it spikes to 38. I tell myself "put on your big boy pants and get in there".

This turned into a novel, sorry. To those I've commented on I am in no way saying you are wrong. I'm just slowly turning into my father and seeing the downside to everything. The problem is that the riskiest thing to do is to avoid risk and do nothing. That guarantees failure. I just look at what Argentina went thru, what Venezuela is now going thru, what post war Germany went thru etc etc etc and think "that could be us". I'd move my money to a safer haven but I'm already in the worldwide safe haven. It turns out that it is a prison but they just haven't locked us in yet.

I'm off to re read all the "Chicken Soup for the Soul" books, then some Jim Rohn and try to get my mojo back.

Thanks again and any other thoughts are appreciated.

What do you invest in when all the cyclical investments seem to peak at once?

In my humble opinion:

Real estate is due for a correction.

The stock market is due for a big correction. 

Every currency is on shaky ground.

Precious metals no longer seem to be the contrarian investment.

Crypotocurrencies are just too new to know which ones will have a future.

Inflation or hyperinflation is a real possibility so sitting in cash is suicide.

If everything goes really really bad then the only universal form of "monetary" exchange will be canned food and shotgun shells. I'm not enough of a doomsday prepper to go that far.

So what does that leave?

Does one diversify so that when 9 out 10 investments tank one has enough left over to buy Scotch and wallow in drunken misery? (Ok, perhaps that's a little too pessimistic).

It's just when I look at my portfolio I think "man, I should sell that (real estate, stocks, forex, metals) before it drops like a rock" and then do what with the money?

Oops.... mistyped. It should have said "the Amish are NOT against technology, instead they...."

I blame my auto correct, you can't expect me to accept responsibility for my own mistake can you.... I'm American so it has to be the fault of someone/something else. (Insert sarcsm emoji here)

When the first viable computers were built the company most ready to profit from them, IBM, stated they thought the worldwide demand for computers would be for something like 12 computers!

When the laser was first perfected they basically said "that's cool, but what can we do with it?"

In the same way I believe that AI, robotics, 3D printing etc., will have so many uses of which we can't even fathom at the moment. 20 years from now people will say "duh, you didn't see that application?" just like we say that about the people involved in early computers and laser applications. Unfortunately, most of those uses will replace human work and the need for human labor. And I do not mean only physical labor, anything a human can do will, in the future, be able to be done better faster cheaper by AI, robotics, and 3D printing. No matter what industry you are in be prepared to hear the words "thank you for your services but they are no longer required".

Now the Amish have an interesting mentality. They are against technogy. Instead they look at each technology from the viewpoint of "will this put people out of work or in some way harm our society?"

Not a bad worldview. In the case of the Amish most feel any technology in the transportation and communication sector after about 1890 is detrimental to their agrarian society and would put people out of work. In the agricultural sector they limit their technology and theory of farming practices to just before World War 2. In the health care sector most will visit modern hospitals when necessary.

It wouldn't be a bad idea to think thru the ethics and societal impact these newest technologies will have. However, I think most people will be like me; I can't wait to see, hear, and experience the latest upcoming revolutions in science no matter how much it screws up the global economy.

I want an alternate enhanced reality to entertain me.

I want new forms of money and commerce to satiate me.

I want a pill that will make me healthy and immortal.

I want government to solve all my problems, provide for all my needs, and protect me from myself and others.

Oh no! I sound just like a millenial. 

We all saw a lot of leveraged guys go bust last downturn. The old two edged sword cliche. 

I never thought I'd see it happen but last year I had a fully rented paid for free and clear single family rental that lost money! Not thru tax and accounting tricks but lost real money. When everything seems to break and needs repair all at once it hurts! 

Having numerous paid off houses and a nice contingency fund made this an interesting anomaly and not a devastating calamity.

On the labor front I see a perfect storm of Artificial Intelligence and robotics helping to topple our global economic "house of cards".

An old book, I think by J. Rifkin, was titled "The End of Work". Very prescent. End of work not in some utopia where the average Joe doesn't need to work, but a dystopia where no one needs his work (please re-insert correct pronouns into the above example: he she s/he they them those it cis non-cis etc., as may be required by the latest politically correct Language Nazis protocol because I can't keep up).

Yes John, I am able to understand you. The point that you missed is that with your embittered attitude and poor communication skills I would not hire you, recommend you, lend money to you, invest with you, nor invest in you... and neither will a lot of other investors of any race. 

There are investors who are looking for sharp go getters. Your all important first impression will be how you dress, speak, write etc.

Its tough to get started. I believe you when you indicate that it is tougher for you than it was for me. So why make it so much harder on yourself?

If you lived in South America and you wanted to impress potential investors you would learn Spanish. If all that stood in your way was to learn a different language would you do it? If you were presenting to a potential investor in Japan would you not learn the correct form for social and business interaction for that culture? The "culture" and "language" of money and of those who have it also has specific expectations. If you insult the Japanese culture you will not impress a potential Japanese investor. Likewise, if you refuse to learn Spanish for example, then a potential joint venture in South America would be more difficult to accomplish. There is money and investors in your city. Learn the language and culture of those who have that money and go get some of it. If you are not articulate that will be a hinderance. 

I write this more for other beginners who might read this than for you John. You'll undoubtedly want to insult me again and have the last word so I will now give you that opportunity.

I'm outta here and still looking for sharp, articulate, respectful, go getters who want my money, experience, and contacts.

*mic drop*