I met with the SolarUniverse guy yesterday and he emailed me some quotes for both a purchase and lease option. My rental is a 4/2 approximately 2060 sq ft house. Using my tenants usage for the past year (they are pretty conservative and pay $175 a month on level-pay) they came up with a ~7.5kW system which would effectively zero out the electric bill on average throughout the year. We would still have to pay some fixed charges (facility, meter, etc.) which would come out to about $12 a month. Here are the numbers which I rounded off a little.
Purchase
$39.2k - ~$11.7k (federal tax credit) - $9k (NV rebate) = ~$18.3k
Being that it's a rental property, I'm not eligible for the federal tax credit so this kind of seems like a non-starter to me. For commercial installations (not sure if 2-4 duplexes count as commercial) you would be able to get the credit and also take depreciation.
Lease
$29.7k (they take the fed tax credit) - $9k (NV rebate) = ~$20.6k
This is a ten-year pre-paid lease option and they assured me that after the lease the FMV for the panels would be effectively zero so we would then own them. They also said that they have signed agreements which said that if there was a residual value they would pay it but that may create some complications. No one has any experience with this and they are hard to value.
Here's the kicker on both of these agreements. The Nevada rebate is a lottery system and is based on NV Energy putting up money to fund the rebates which varies year-to-year. This year for both residential and small business combined, NV Energy is only rebating up to 1539 kW's of installations this year. Based on my math, that would mean only ~205 people will get rebates based on our size system for all of southern Nevada. The sales guy said he estimated I had a 70% chance but I think that's a wildly optimistic assumption. They did however include a clause in their contract that if I didn't get the rebate I could cancel the deal.
So, in my situation, here's what I believe would be the numbers.
My tenants pay $175 a month now. Subtract out the $12 a month fixed charges and that would mean $163 a month for electricity assuming the system zero's out the utility charges for electricity generation.
$163 * 12 = $1956 / $20653 (cash/lease) = 9.4% return
The sales guy said they have a bank who will do a 12-year amortization of the lease payments with zero down at 2.99%. That cuts into the return and doesn't count for any vacancy. At the end of the day it's pretty close to break even but I'm not sure I want to take on the additional debt. I think I'm going to wait until SolarCity makes it to Nevada and do a power purchase agreement instead. I haven't got enough usage details on our Phoenix property yet to get a quote. We'll see in a few months.
PS. If you are interested in this for 2013 you need to hurry. The deadline for Nevada rebates is May 17th and it takes a few days to process the paperwork. Good luck!