All Forum Posts by: George Red

Hey Caleb, thanks for posting. My read is that inventory is up and that matches your data... will be interesting to see what happens if rates start to drop moving forward. I'm sure we're not going too much lower but if I was a betting man I would wager we're headed lower rate wise... may bring some buyers off the sidelines. I've been just sitting tight and looking for steals but not putting too much effort into it... building capital back up and watching the wind blow. Good luck all.

I've been investing remotely for a few years now and yeah the lower price point was a definite draw... rents have raised steadily and I'm having that "I should have bought more" post pandemic thought. Man when I see some of the prices from pre-pandemic for duplexes... would have been great to have scooped a few then.

Thanks for your interpretation Drew... I'm looking forward to the savings!!!

Circling back, anyone have insight... should taxes go down effective 1/1/26?

@Drew Donlon thanks for the information, it's a bit of legalese but makes sense. My only question (if you know the answer) is now that the assessments have been rolled back, will property taxes be rolled back for this year... or will it start in 2026? That's the part I'm unsure of guidance wise, the assessments have been lowered, but when will that translate to lower tax payments... future effective 1/1/26, retro to 1/1/25 or effective of notification...

Any insight anyone has would be appreciated.

Reaching out to see if others are having similar experiences and trying to read the tea leaves. I received letters from Jackson County for my rentals for 2025 assessment notices. The assessed values are considerably lower than the 2024 rate. I'm trying to think through if the decrease is due to them trying to compensate for the ridiculously high tax rate increases from last cycle that resulted in lawsuits and court orders. Any thoughts, are other owners in Jackson County seeing the same?

If it's a house hack and is -$11, as in it would cost you $11 per month for your mortgage out of pocket that sounds pretty good. Most people would be interested in $11 out of your own pocket towards the mortgage with the rest being subsidized by your tenant. 

@Andrew Syrios sounds like the veto was not overturned... Hooray crazy higher property taxes for all!!! Not awesome, although hopefully this helps to keep any future potential increases at bay.

In response to the initial question. My read is that...

Near Term Housing Supply - His policies will not improve near term supply. Building developments and new housing is a years long process. His erratic and inconsistent behavior does not give companies the consistency or predictability necessary to change/ramp up the long term planning necessary for dramatically ramping up supply. Trumps behavior introduces more variables (lumber, labor costs etc.) that make long term planning more challenging.

Interest rate pressure. The Fed will move in a manner consistent with their dual mandate of maximizing employment while moderating inflation. They should not set rates based on the desires of one man, they have a larger responsibility to the economy as a whole and should not be swayed by what Trump thinks is right. They are smart economists who have responsibilities that extend beyond what a president wants, lest they risk hurting the economy long term to produce a short term positive political effect.

Downward pressure on demand. Trump will not be deporting millions of people, he knew that saying that would get uninformed xenophobes to vote for him and they’re critical to his voting block. He lacks the attention span to complete this… even if he wanted to… for proof see his insistence that we take Canada, then Panama, then Greenland… and then he’s off to tariffs having left chaos and no achievement in his wake. Trump appears to just think out loud which is a horrible trait for a leader. If the CEO of your employer behaved half as ham handed as Trump they would be sent packing. It would be funny if it weren’t sad. Deporting millions of likely renters would hurt rental demand, which would put downward pressure on rental pricing. His erratic and seemingly incoherent (not that this was unexpected) tariff strategy will also put downward pressure on demand as people limit spending due to economic uncertainty and business leaders (who need economic stability to execute on long term plans, like building new factories) will pause on decisions because they don’t know which way his comb over will be blowing 4 weeks from now so you can’t make long term plans.

Upward cost on RE operating costs. Many of the products you purchase for building and maintaining a property are not made in the US. Tariffs increase the cost to import these goods, which is at least partially passed on to the consumer. Yes this administration will raise RE operating costs. Inflation this way cometh.

My crystal ball said to watch out for those crafty penguins on the Heard and McDonald Islands... their unfair trading practices will bankrupt your portfolio for sure...