Originally posted by @Edgar Rodriguez:
I am of the school that a shift was coming regardless. It has been a seller's market for way too long and the supply has been very low even pre covid. I do not think it will be the 40-50% crash like in 2008 but I do foresee a lot of people looking to sell their homes that, like you said, lost their jobs, took pay cuts, etc. I know a lot of people that are seriously in deep if they lose their job. People have not been saving as much money as in the past because of various factors.
However, there is still very little affordable housing and that is the sector, at least in the Tampa area, that I do not foresee taking a dive in good areas. This includes sub 200k homes normally. Sub 100k or 150k within 30 minutes of Tampa in good, safe areas for single family is basically impossible now.
I wholeheartedly agree on your first point, as the old quote goes - you see who's swimming naked when the tide goes out.
In regards to the sub 200k home, that is an interesting point (the same is true in almost every major city. Finding any livable home in a safe neighborhood for that price is absurd - Yes, there are plenty of cheap houses, but they are cheap for a reason). I would tend to agree that the price point you mentioned will probably see a smaller decrease (which means directly above it $275-400) should see a dramatic reduction as there is a plethora of those.
Originally posted by @Titus Coleman:
@Garrison Bowers I know of exactly 3 zip codes in Atlanta where 18-19% of the loans are delinquent over 90+ days. There are a lot of areas in the suburbs with 9-11% delinquent loans. I think once the FHA eviction memorandum is lifted we’ll see an increase inventory. I’d imagine conventional loans are also seeing a good amount of delinquencies as well.
But overall, I doubt we see any substantial price drops until Spring/Summer 2021. Patience will be key here.
That is fascinating (and unsurprising), if I may ask how did you find that data? I agree completely on the increased inventory - there's just no other way this resolves without financial pain - but I think Spring/Summer might just be the tip of the iceberg.
As early as 2016, an Economic Forecaster named Harry Dent was calling out the "2nd Housing Bubble" and its eerily similar circumstances to 2008/2009. Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDO's) have become Bespoke Tranche Opportunities (BTO's) and it isn't like we have seen a reduction in the financialization of the economy. Housing Prices are over-inflated, corporate debt is at an all time high, consumer debt is maxed out (and still out of proportion with corporate debt). I think this goes much further than COVID-19 and the massive reduction in employed workforce (although that certainly doesn't help)
IMHO this has all the markers of another great depression. And I believe that those who are prepared will turn their thousands into millions, or millions into billions.
