@Ned Carey Your point is well taken. In this specific instance I could get it done with personal money (leaving money in reserve just in case) and a private loan of $50K at 8% interest only with a balloon after 12 months. I believe the property is currently vacant and I'd like to get the rehab done (mostly using contractors) and have the place rented in 4 months.
If you have the time to read my explanation below I'd love to get your opinion. Perhaps I'm over-complicating things or perhaps I should be looking at different metrics. I'm trying to get to a point where I can determine if a deal is good for me or not and I still have a lot to learn. Thanks
Gross rent in Year 1 [4 months vacancy, no mortgage]; $1,807 * 8 = $14,456
Less interest only payments; $14,456 - $333.33 * 12 = $10,456 cash flow Year 1.
Refinance at the start of Year 2; $185k ARV * .7 = $129,500
- $50k balloon = $79,500
+ $12,744 [cash flow from rent with new mortgage] = $92,244 cash flow Year 2
Sell in Year 5;
less the balance due on the amortization schedule $121,909
= $63,091 cash flow Year 5
The present value is now $135k which means that if I put in $140k at the start ($80k purchase price + $60k rehab costs) I overpaid by $5k.
I realize there are a lot of limitations to this, for starters I didn't increase the rent at all and I assumed no appreciation beyond the ARV. I also didn't factor in any fees at closing in year 5. There are probably some other factors I'm missing and I probably could have used Net Present Value to make it look neater.
Now I realize that your point was about numbers now vs. the future but I think that projecting future cash flows and using PV helps me to understand what I can pay for a deal now if I want a certain rate of return.