Originally posted by @Dan H.:
I agree numbers do not tell the whole story.
First the positive, if that property was in my market and in a C class or better area with no significant deferred maintenance and no other issues, I buy it in a second. I suspect your vacancy estimate is high so that will help the cash flow. In general, smaller LL of smaller unit count structures have less vacancy than complexes with larger number of units. I doubt the vacancy rate in your area is as high as 10%, but even if it is I suspect you will have a lower vacancy rate. It is in part because the value of 5+ units is based on the NOI and therefore the value is maximized when the income is maximized and the expenses minimized. Higher rents is top way to maximize the income. They have more incentive to optimize rents that the <5 unit RE which should strive to minimize vacancies.
Now the bad, your maintenance/cap expense is too low. I am not a fan of basing it off a percentage of rent. You have ~$2600 allocated which is just over $100/unit per month. That could suffice for a large unit count complexes but is going to be short on a duplex. A water heater has an expense of ~$8/month (~$1100/12.5 (years)/12 (moths/yr)in my market. I suspect this is close to what it is in your market. So the water heater by itself is almost 10% of your allocation and a water heater is a low cost item. Roofs, plumbing, electrical, foundations, kitchens, bathrooms, HVAC, and hardscape are costly. The less expensive items also add up. PM fees in most markets when including all charges is ~10% (not as low as 5%).
I think you have a fine first RE investment. In addition, I suspect you will learn a lot and be in a position to have a great second RE investment.
Congrats.
Dan,
Thank you! My offer did not get accepted so I'm back hunting. I will most definitely keep in mind both of your pieces of advice on the next one. You are absolutely right on the fact that the vacancy rate is probably overestimated because in reality there is not much available for rent in this area and it's in the most populated part of Maine. The reason capital expenditures were a bit lower was because the roof, the windows and other upgrades have been made within the past 16 yrs. I suspect one overestimate was offsetting the other underestimate. I see where you're coming from on estimating based on the actual cost rather than % or rent!
Thank you for your wisdom and taking the time to provide feedback!