@Kyle Johnson, both are excellent markets. You said cash flow is more important to you so if that is true I would point you to Ohio. Also, I just have to comment on your "good weather" comment...LOL Phoenix is super hot but I guess it is good relative to Ohio :). To your point, though, Phoenix' cash flow is looking better right now as occupancy is tight and rents are still growing. If you decide on Phoenix, I'm happy to put you in touch with some folks on the management side.
@Brian Garlington hit the nail on the head. You'll generally get stronger cash-on-cash returns in Ohio but Phoenix offers appreciation potential that Ohio can't match (yet). Wouldn't be uncommon for Cash-on-Cash to be 10%+ in Ohio with minimal upside (aka your IRR will be close to your COC return) whereas Phoenix could show a 8% COC return with IRRs north of 15% (meaning greater projected equity appreciation). Personally, I'll take the slightly lower COC to take advantage of the greater back end growth but I'm relatively young and focused on total return rather than cash flow.
Bottom Line:
Which market would you choose and why?
I would choose Phoenix because it is closer to home, the appreciation potential is very real, the cash flow is solid, the trends are extremely favorable, the operating expenses are lower (insurance, taxes, repairs & maintenance, etc.), and it is a hot market in many investors' eyes which should make your exit easier.
Which is better for my goals and why?
See above. I would not underestimate the logistical issues of investing OOS if I were you. Phoenix is closer by air and car and more relatable in that many Californians are moving there and will continue to do so (most likely).
Which market would you choose and why? Which is better for my goals and why? Thank you for your help.
From my research these two areas tend to have