Quote from @Jamir McClinton:
OFF-MARKET LAND FLIP
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I just want to know if my analysis is accurate or if I’m way off. I’ve already contacted the seller and just need a buyer who is interested in this to close with me( I’m a wholesaler). Also, the property itself is also worth 1.4-2.03 million as is with no house built on it.
To determine a realistic and justifiable ARV for this property with a 4,000 sq. ft. luxury home, I analyzed comparable sales close by in Jamestown, RI, focusing on price per square foot and property characteristics.
Step 1: Identifying Comparable Sales
I selected six high-end waterfront properties in Jamestown that share similar lot sizes, locations, and luxury build quality. The price per square foot ranged from $791/sq. ft. to $1,500/sq. ft., with most high-end waterfront homes selling between $1,200–$1,500/sq. ft.
| Comparable Property | Sale Price | Size (Sq. Ft.) | Price per Sq. Ft. |
|---|
| 556 E Shore Rd | $5M | 3,900 sq. ft. | $1,282/sq. ft. |
| 5 Auidneck Ct | $3.09M | 3,200 sq. ft. | $965/sq. ft. |
| 30 Battery Ln | $2.53M | 3,200 sq. ft. | $791/sq. ft. |
| 597 Beavertail Rd | $7.82M | 5,300 sq. ft. | $1,475/sq. ft. |
| 541 Seaside Dr | $4.2M | 3,400 sq. ft. | $1,235/sq. ft. |
| 4 Dewey Ln | $4.05M | 2,700 sq. ft. | $1,500/sq. ft. |
Step 2: Adjusting for Size
Since the planned home at 245 Seaside Dr will be 4,000 sq. ft., I used an estimated price per square foot within the market range:
- Conservative: $1,200/sq. ft. → $4.8M ARV
- Moderate: $1,350/sq. ft. → $5.4M ARV
- High-End: $1,500/sq. ft. → $6.0M ARV
- Premium Luxury (based on 4 Dewey Ln & 597 Beavertail Rd): $7.1M
Since 245 Seaside Dr is a prime location and waterfront lots in Jamestown have high demand, I conservatively estimate $1,500/sq. ft., leading to an ARV of:
4,000 sq. ft. × $1,500/sq. ft. = $6.0M – $7.1M
Step 3: Justification of ARV at $7.1M
- Waterfront Location: High demand for oceanfront properties in Jamestown.
- Luxury Market Trends: High-end buyers are paying $1,200 – $1,500 per sq. ft. for new construction.
- Comparable Sales Support: 4 Dewey Ln and 597 Beavertail Rd confirm the $1,500/sq. ft. estimate is realistic.
- Low Inventory: Waterfront lots in Jamestown are scarce, increasing property value.
Your ARV analysis looks pretty solid based on the comps you've used. The price per square foot range makes sense given the high-end waterfront market, and you've done a good job breaking it down into conservative, moderate, and premium projections. The $1,500/sq. ft. estimate seems reasonable since 4 Dewey Ln and 597 Beavertail Rd support that pricing.
One thing to consider is whether any of the comps had unique features or lot premiums that could push their price per square foot higher than what your property might command. If 4 Dewey and 597 Beavertail had extra land, deep-water docks, or other luxury amenities, those factors could slightly inflate their value compared to your build.
Since you’re wholesaling, the key will be making sure your buyer sees the same potential. If the raw land is worth $1.4M–$2.03M as you mentioned, you’ll want to make sure there’s enough spread for an investor to feel comfortable, especially if they’ll need to front construction costs. If you’re locking it up at the lower end of that land value range, you might have a solid deal here.
