Originally posted by @Rick Baggenstoss:
Atlanta tends to lag behind western markets. If you're looking for a national flip from buyer's to seller's market, then I'd watch Phoenix and Vegas. When they slow/change, then Atlanta, for example, will turn several months later.
Anticipating more of a headwind, I'm restructuring my debt, culling my portfolio of less desirable properties, and accumlating cash as a result. I'm still buying rentals and flips, but only taking on high profit projects or solid longterm holds.
I agree that Atlanta seems to mirror in a lagging fashion to the Phoenix market (for whatever reasons); and from what I can tell, both seem to still be doing pretty well at the moment. The switch from seller's market to a buyer's market doesn't just happen overnight. 3 key things I pay attention to determine if the seller's market is ending are the following:
1. Absorption rate: Basically this is how many months it takes to sell listings in a certain housing market. Real estate experts estimate the average months on inventory is about 6 months. In my market in Atlanta, we're still below 4.
2. Multiple offers: I'm technically a millennial and a lot of my friends are buying homes (some buying starter homes and some upgrading out of starter homes). Every one of them have mentioned either getting multiple offers on the homes they're selling or the home they're purchasing having multiple offers on it. My real estate investor associates also say they're still seeing multiple offers on homes. As long as you're still seeing multiple offers on a lot of homes, it's still a seller's market.
3. Rising prices: Overall I'm still seeing rising pries in my market. One anecdotal example is, 10 months ago a friend purchased a townhouse; starting a new family he and his wife decided to sell their newly purchased townhouse to upgrade to a larger home...it sold for $50,000+ more than they purchased it 10 months ago. That's more of a random example and not a systematic scientific evaluation, but nevertheless a personal observation. Prices aren't rising at the speeds they were a few years ago, but I'm still seeing some ridiculous prices out here.
With all that being said, I think its hard to say the seller market is over (for Atlanta anyway), however I do think we're coming up on some corrections in the market in the next year or two. Things are starting to get a little out of hand now and when that happens...things fall. Right now I'm just waiting to pick up the pieces when they do. As Baron Rothschild says "when there's blood in the streets, buy!"
I think good investors make money in buyer's and seller's market and welcome both. Diversify your portfolio, don't get over leveraged, have some reserve cash on hand for great deals and you'll do well in a buyer's and seller's market. The change in markets is not a time of panic to me, it's just a different kind of opportunity.