Quote from @Leo R.:
@Diya L. congrats! Looks like you're making some awesome things happen!
Question about your underwriting and operations processes: what things are you doing to anticipate and prepare for the effects of recession?
I worked in the hospitality industry for a while, and it seemed like the A+++ B&B's, hotels, etc. weren't affected by recession too much, but other places (esp. those that relied heavily on tourism) got hit pretty hard with vacancies whenever the economy turned south. Any info about how you factor economic downturns into your model would help us all be better underwriters and operators!
BTW; the heart-shaped tub is classic--all it needs is a '60s fireplace and more shag carpet lol
1. We are underwriting deals with higher exit CAP rates, assuming that CAP will go up with interest rates.
2. We are buying deals that are selling for below the average sales price per Key (door) in that market/submarket - meaning, we are buying stuff usually at least 20% below market in terms of sales comps. This usually means the current financials suck, and the valuation is lower to match it.
3. We are buying deals that we can significantly increase the valuation simply by bringing the ADR (or RevPAR) to market average. Meaning, we are NEVER assuming we outperform the market (even though we have very talented operators on the team). We are only assuming we hit the average, or slightly below the average, on RevPAR and ADR.
4. We are locking in good debt and chasing deals where we can get optimal financing. I have walked away from great deals with meh financing and chased average deals with amazing financing simply because of the market we are in. Amazing financing terms with at least 5 years of locked terms is key in this weird market we are in.
... and many other considerations, like local market pressures, local politics, natural disaster liklihood, tourism diversity, nearby town growth, etc. I look at a ton of factors even back when I was just buying STRs, and I never bought anything for STRs at current market value either (always below market price). For example, some of my STRs I bought for $94K, $95K etc and I was able to resell at $250K the year later.