Hi Steve - I found this post very intriguing so I spent some time doing a quick analysis.
Ball park for commercial loans I've always read about is anywhere between 20-35% -- typically on the higher end. But let's say you find some lender willing to give you a 95% LTV loan -- On the $1MM 4-plex property.. you'd have payments of (ballpark estimates):
950k loan @ a commercial rate of 6% = $5,695/mo towards principal / interest
+Maintenance / Vacancy of 15% = $14,400/year ($1,200/mo) (this is 7.5% for maintenance, 7.5% vacancy -- possibly not high enough -- but a quick estimate nonetheless)
+Insurance (assuming 1% of loan) = $9,500/year ($791/mo -- just under $200/mo/unit -- might be a bit high..)
+Taxes (assuming 2% of property value) = $20,000/year ($1,666/mo)
= a total of $9,354/month to own the property because you're so leveraged
Thus, you need each of those 4 units to pull $2,338/mo to break even -- You said gross annual rent currently is $49,200/year -- that's $4,100 / month (or $1,025/mo/unit) -- you need to more than double each units rent to be profitable. Is this realistic, regardless of what upgrades you can make?
Additionally, I don't know your financial situation, but do you have enough financial income to cover multiple vacancies on top of all your other obligations. I would just hate to see yourself so over-leveraged that a 2-3 month blip on 1-2 units could potentially lose you the property and send you into foreclosure.
All-in-all I'd personally rather see you put the $50,000 in a safer investment. You can find many duplexes, or even triplexes in the $175k-300k range. A $300,000 tri-plex pulling $1,200/unit would result in a 9.41% cap rate -- using the same percentages for criteria in my PITI calculations above (exception -- interest rate lowered to 4.25%) and yield a 26.92% CoC return. You'd achieve an IRR of 5.38% and have an NOI of $13,461/year.
The only way I can realistically see that property selling for $1,000,000 is if someone buys it all-cash or close to all-cash. It does not currently pull enough rental income / unit to be worthwhile otherwise. An all cash deal would still only yield a 1.23% cap rate -- assuming $20,000/year is going to taxes, $9,500/year to insurance, and you have $7,380/year in maintenance/vacancy. I'd rather put my $1MM in a money market earning 1.1% and not have to deal with the hassle of tenants! Time is money.
Hope this helps one way or the other!
Best,
Dan