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All Forum Posts by: Dave Lawrence

Dave Lawrence has started 5 posts and replied 20 times.

Post: How does this story end? Prediction for 2020

Dave LawrencePosted
  • Investor
  • SANTA BARBARA, CA
  • Posts 22
  • Votes 27
Originally posted by @Bryce Deeney:

I put a large put option on Zillow two weeks ago. Not because I want the housing market to fail, but because I believe it will, and hard. 

Screenshot of the transaction from your trading platform, plz. At a min: strike price, opt expiration, and date of execution. Diff between bid/ask (even at- or in-the-money) on thinly traded options like ZG, let alone their IV, make them virtually un-tradable. 

"deja vu..."? Huh? Doesn't that term, by definition, indicate we've been here/done this/seen that before? I don't think there are many RE moguls from 1918 on the BP forums. 

I've got my head on a swivel, am on the lookout for opportunities, etc. setting up contingencies, wargaming this (remotely, of course) with my teams, etc. but we are in freefall with no end in sight. Things we wring our hands over today will seem quaint in another 48-72 hours. 

I don't think of myself as over-leveraged and/or under-capitalized. I own C/B SFHs (w/ mortgages) in mkts with growing populations, colleges, industry, etc. A number of my rentals are in the Charleston, SC area--home of Boeing, a huge USAF base, and, until recently, one of the country's most bustling tourism mkts. Not sure how or if I'll weather this storm. That's not capitulation; it's just being real in the face of very, very grim possibilities. Panicked? No. Fearful? A bit. Anxious? Oh yea...

Wish I'd read Taleb's Incerto books sooner :(  Re-reading Black Swan right now. Damn that guy's a prophet.

Post: ADU potential, 1031?

Dave LawrencePosted
  • Investor
  • SANTA BARBARA, CA
  • Posts 22
  • Votes 27

I have a handful of SFH rentals on the east coast that have seen some appreciation in recent years. Meanwhile I'm living and renting in SoCal (current place is well below market rates, as LL hasn't bumped rent in 5 years, and wife and I are very happy here). But I have had an eye towards house-hacking for some time. I have VA eligibility (and a 70% rating), and am interested in a home that has great ADU potential via a garage conversion.

I know 1031s can't be done on ADUs when the primary residence is already titled in your name, but can a 1031 be done while the transaction is in progress? Also: My fear is that, in order to do so, I would have to forgo the VA loan and go with a commercial product. Here's the link to the place I'm looking at.

Any thoughts?

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2139-Modoc-Rd-Santa-Barbara-CA-93101/15894086_zpid/

Post: Is a crisis or a pull back coming?

Dave LawrencePosted
  • Investor
  • SANTA BARBARA, CA
  • Posts 22
  • Votes 27

IMO, buying options (puts OR calls) is a sucker's play, unless you're hedging or covering. 21st century gold-panning, for all practical purposes. Blind squirrels and nuts, broken clocks, etc... 

I'm not the sharpest knife in the drawer--I got an MA in English, for crying out loud!--but I know the road to financial perdition has been paved in part with sky-is-falling hand-wringers who thought they'd properly timed a market hemorrhage, compliments of their crystal ball, tarot cards, Motley Fool newsletters, and Ms. Cleo (RIP).

Show me a screen shot of your hearty short position on SPY, or better yet long-term shorts on e-mini or SnP futures and I'll know you have the courage of conviction :) 

I'm with @Jay Hinrichs and @Bob B. Meh. AusieAusieAusie, OyeOyeOye!

Post: Portfolio loan in SDIRA

Dave LawrencePosted
  • Investor
  • SANTA BARBARA, CA
  • Posts 22
  • Votes 27

Thanks @George Blower. And speaking of the IRS: would his attorney (or 3rd party administrator) provide me a 1098 at year end? 

Post: Portfolio loan in SDIRA

Dave LawrencePosted
  • Investor
  • SANTA BARBARA, CA
  • Posts 22
  • Votes 27

Thanks for the replies, @Dmitriy Fomichenko and @Brian Eastman. Great points to ponder. @Daniel Dietz: I like the idea of his funding new purchases, as you suggest, v. the refi. I'll do some more research on that, for sure!

Post: Portfolio loan in SDIRA

Dave LawrencePosted
  • Investor
  • SANTA BARBARA, CA
  • Posts 22
  • Votes 27

A wealthy childhood friend and I were talking about my SFH REI. I have 10 conforming loans on cash-flowing properties, and we're trying to come up with a win-win. He's not a RE investor, but he has about $1M in his Roth.

He's getting a bit nervous about having so much in equities, but doesn't have an appetite for becoming a landlord. As we were discussing diversification options, we started kicking around the idea of his opening up a SDIRA with a 3rd party administrator, then becoming a portfolio lender on, say, 6 of my properties. Rate would be about 6.5%, probably a 30 year am with a 10 year balloon. His loan to me would be collatoralized by the properties, and I would then have 6 new bites at the Fannie apple. I'd show him all my Sched E's, PnLs, rent rolls, etc. of course, so he could have peace of mind. He knows the general area so we wouldn't have to do appraisals (plenty of comps to suffice), probably do 75% LTV, and he's not concerned about charging me points, origination fees, etc.

What am I/we missing? Red flags? Again, this is a childhood friend, and we've trusted each other implicitly for 40+ years. If it can't be win-win, it simply won't happen. If it is win-win, what are the next steps to set something like this up? If this has been asked and answered in the forums (haven't located it yet in my query), I'm happy to be sent to a different thread. Thanks!

Post: How do you pull out equity on your home after its appreciated?

Dave LawrencePosted
  • Investor
  • SANTA BARBARA, CA
  • Posts 22
  • Votes 27

You can do HELOCs on rental properties through Pentagon Federal CU ("PenFed"). If you own more than 3 rentals and DON'T own your primary residence, you're out of luck, but otherwise... Competitive rates, no appraisal necessary (unless you want to pay for one, in the hopes of getting a better number on your investment prop). Not a bad option... They're also good for mortgages on investment properties (currently 4.5%, 30 yr am, 10 yr balloon)...

Post: Help!!! Why won’t this SFH rent?

Dave LawrencePosted
  • Investor
  • SANTA BARBARA, CA
  • Posts 22
  • Votes 27

@Heidi Kenefick

Looks like you made some nice adjustments, and you got it rented. Good for you! Not sure if you had to fire the old PM, or just give them a little wire-brushing, but those pics look very nice! 

Post: Help!!! Why won’t this SFH rent?

Dave LawrencePosted
  • Investor
  • SANTA BARBARA, CA
  • Posts 22
  • Votes 27

I don't have access to MLS info, so one thing I do when I'm looking at a listing (in order to get a feel for potential rent amount, and how long it might be on the market) is to simply enter the address (minus the house #) and add "hotpads." When I google "Teakwood Dr, Greenville, NC 27834 hotpads," the 2nd item that pops up is 1204 Teakwood (no longer on the market), which is bigger and photographs nicer than your place (but even these guys took a bunch of stupid portrait shots). You priced yours above that to start, which most certainly set you back.

Your hotpads listing is particularly unflattering IMO. Those first two pics look like a possible short sale! HINT (assuming you have more than just a flip phone): wait til dusk, turn all the lights on in the house, and take a landscape picture of your exterior. Fill the frame with the house--not the house and the driveway and the yard LOL. Your hotpads listing says it's been viewed 29 times this week, and the PM has only been contacted once. You're simply not getting any action, for a number of reasons. When I start getting a 25% engagement rate on hotpads, I know I'll typically have my place rented in a week or less; rough rule of thumb. 

No sense renting at $1300; why not do $1295? Those century marks are psychological barriers; retailers figured that out eons ago...  

Here's the screening matrix my PM in Charleston SC posts on their website. Among other things, it does a great job with expectation management from the git-go with prospective tenants. This holistic screening has really improved the quality of tenants they've put in my properties, and has also helped reduce turnover dramatically