Originally posted by @Bryce Deeney:
I put a large put option on Zillow two weeks ago. Not because I want the housing market to fail, but because I believe it will, and hard.
Screenshot of the transaction from your trading platform, plz. At a min: strike price, opt expiration, and date of execution. Diff between bid/ask (even at- or in-the-money) on thinly traded options like ZG, let alone their IV, make them virtually un-tradable.
"deja vu..."? Huh? Doesn't that term, by definition, indicate we've been here/done this/seen that before? I don't think there are many RE moguls from 1918 on the BP forums.
I've got my head on a swivel, am on the lookout for opportunities, etc. setting up contingencies, wargaming this (remotely, of course) with my teams, etc. but we are in freefall with no end in sight. Things we wring our hands over today will seem quaint in another 48-72 hours.
I don't think of myself as over-leveraged and/or under-capitalized. I own C/B SFHs (w/ mortgages) in mkts with growing populations, colleges, industry, etc. A number of my rentals are in the Charleston, SC area--home of Boeing, a huge USAF base, and, until recently, one of the country's most bustling tourism mkts. Not sure how or if I'll weather this storm. That's not capitulation; it's just being real in the face of very, very grim possibilities. Panicked? No. Fearful? A bit. Anxious? Oh yea...
Wish I'd read Taleb's Incerto books sooner :( Re-reading Black Swan right now. Damn that guy's a prophet.