All Forum Posts by: Dan Close

This one has been heavily debated for years.

https://www.wlky.com/article/m... I've been back and forth on my opinion but now glad its going forward. 

Thanks for sharing @Dana McMahan. Its interesting, I just recently talked to someone else doing very well with small studios. One thing she mentioned that was helpful for her was allowing guests to only book one night since most of the competition requires two. 

Sounds interesting, I'll shoot you a DM @Chuck B.

Thanks,

Dan

Curious what other investors in Louisville, KY think about One Park in the Highlands. Most of the neighbors in the area I have talked to are against in due to traffic concerns. I myself am a bit torn, I like large investments being made in the area which I think has been a bit lacking recently with all the east end development. But I also live in the highlands and I dont see how that area could handle the traffic without some major road changes. 

https://www.bizjournals.com/louisville/news/2019/10/01/one-park-vote-postponed-after-marathon-public.html

I dont think the data from the article was flawed, just that its looking at the whole US market for the percentage points.

https://www.redfin.com/blog/next-recession-housing-market/

It does go on to discuss markets with the highest future risk and several in the top 10 are in CA.

One problem that happened in Louisville, KY during the last recession (and I assume other places as well) was banks calling loans due. The stories I've heard were investors who took houses in class D locations leveraged them for way more then there were worth and spent the money. When the banks wanted to get in a stronger position they started calling loans due, and even though the property was still cash flowing, not having the cash on hand to get back to the proper LTV caused a lot of them to go under.

I think its much harder to over leverage like this today because even if you wanted to, the banks are not giving these crazy loans anymore. 

When I think recessions I automatically start thinking about plummeting real estate values and how that could hurt me with my existing portfolio or if i'm in the right position it can be a great time for more acquisition. But per the data, for every official recession since 1980 only the last one had any significant impact on real estate. Very interesting article from Redfin.

"In all but the 2007-2009 Great Recession, inflation-adjusted home prices only declined an average of 2.7 percent from the month before the recession began to the final month of the recession"

https://www.redfin.com/blog/ne...

@emily fackler were you thinking about turning a rental into an Airbnb or buying a property specifically to Airbnb?

Hey Shane,

I've done similar scenarios in the past with friends where I pay them an hourly rate. My maintenance person is actually my best friend and we used one of the cheaper online services like rocket lawyer and modified it to fit our needs. 

There are always deals to be had even in a hot market, you just have to grind a lot more to get them. If you buy right unless something catastrophic happens with the economy you can weather a recession and still not be upside down. I should add a disclaimer though, I invest in Louisville, KY where the ups and downs are not nearly as dramatic as they can be in the coastal cities. I would imagine though if you can buy/rehab at 60 to 70% ARV minus repairs you should still be pretty good.