I’m not sure it’s safe to say rents don’t go down in a down turn. When new homes stop selling, builders will sometimes turn to rental for cash flow. A brand new house down the street renting for even your current rental rate (assuming it does) means your older home will have to decrease to compete. The worst thing you can have in business is a desperate or stupid competitor. Track home builders in a cash crunch can be both.
Saying that interest rates go down in a down turn is also not entirely correct. This is the lowest interest rate environment in my lifetime. Rates were higher in every previous downturn that I recall, back to the S&L crisis in the 80s. If inflation cranks up, recession or not the rates will rise to offset, most likely. If you have a fixed rate then who cares. If your model is built on refi or an ARM. You could be screwed.
I’m not saying hide under the covers, but the last 15 years are not a reliable indicator of what the next 5 will be. No offense to the many smart people on this site, but many of them have been through maybe one down cycle. They are not the same, and they are rarely what you expect.
We always model a lever plan. If the market does this, what lever will we pull (lay-off, sell of x properties, rent for cash flow at x percent off normal rates). If the market does this, minus another 10% we pull the first lever and then the second (move in with parents, rent primary home, etc, you get the idea). This minus 20%, lever plan 3. Predict the best, worst, and expected market. Then figure out how you’d react in each scenario and run a simple Pro Forma.
It’s not being paranoid. It’s having a plan and executing if the need should arise. We did this each year in my old business which did about 100 mil annually and was VERY cyclical. If the market tanks, we update it much more frequently (in 2009 where we lost 80% of our market potential, we updated it weekly) but we looked at it each year as part of our business planning. It is a lovely thing to see an inch of dust on it, that means that the market is doing well this year.
Nowadays (in this business) the process is much more compact and less detailed but we still look at it.