All Forum Posts by: Chris Wilson

@Scott Trench Eliminating so many federal jobs is already having a big ripple effect on the economy and the housing market.

I saw it firsthand here locally when I lost 2 deals this past week because of it. One of my buyers had to back out of her first home purchase because she lost her job at NCAR. Any market with a lot of federal jobs is in trouble which is a big change because previously these were considered recession-resistant markets as federal jobs are usually very stable. 

Also lost a buyer on a listing I have. they cancelled during inspection because the property needs an easement from the forest service for a driveway. This normally is not a big deal and takes about the same amount of time as getting the building permit. But the buyer called the forest service to check and found out it will be 4-5 years minimum now, thanks to recent layoffs, so these buyers would now have to wait 4-5 years to build their house, and they backed out. 

So I think that all the federal layoffs that DOGE is implementing right now will have big ripple effects that are negative for the real estate market. 

Decimating HUD by terminating half the employees there like he says he's going to do will also have a big negative effect on the real estate market. Especially section 8 rentals of course because HUD struggled to manage that program before. Payments may be delayed or funding cut, tenants receiving section 8 may have to be evicted, etc. and all the mess around that but also the halting of any new construction projects of affordable housing and community centers etc. , and communities, families, and small businesses impacted by disasters will be unable to rebuild... it will not be good.

Eliminating the CFPB also seems like it will have a big negative effect on the health of the housing market (The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, which was created by congress after the 2008 financial crisis to reduce the risk of another financial crisis). The former director just said that Trump was "begging for another financial crisis" by shutting down the CFPB.

Most economists agree that Trump's policies will be inflationary: significant tax cuts for businesses, tariffs on imports, and deporting undocumented immigrants. Inflation is already going back up due to Trumps policies. This means that interest rates will need to stay high to combat inflation. This means less buyers and a weaker real estate market. The 10-year Treasury bond yield jumped by more than 14 points after the election. When the Treasury bond yield rises, interest rates on everything from mortgages to fixed-income investments to business loans also increases. Rising T-bond yields is bad news for mortgages and the real estate industry.

 I think we may see the world's first Trillionaires during Trump's presidency, but it will probably just be Trump and his billionaire buddies, while anyone who is not already a billionaire may suffer. 

Here's my take, I believe you are missing some key points (or assuming incorrectly :-)

Put upward pressure on interest rates: Trump's demand that the Fed lower rates will have absolutely no effect.

I disagree. Presidents can, will and do put pressure on the Fed chair. They hire them and can fire them, it's not realistic to think there is no pressure on them. I say Trump puts his size 11s up Powells butt by this summer.

However, the implementation of tariffs, or just the threat of tariffs, is likely to influence rates, by impacting inflation numbers, and this influence may come quickly if prices for many common goods and services and raw materials rise

You are assuming that the typical view of Tariffs that we hear from the Dems and the Media are the way they actually work. If you listen to other economists, there are different views on this. And once the 'Reciprocal Tariffs' go into effeect, that's a whole new game. This whole Tariff thing should be short-lived anyway, I see little effect on the economy overall...

I personally believe it is unlikely that Trump actually deports millions of illegal immigrants who have settled in the United States. This, to me, seems impractical, and a PR nightmare.

I think Mr Trump will indeed deport 'a bunch', probably many millions by the time we are done, but certainly I would see the number in excess of a million, easy. He doesn't care about the PR either, the most recent poll saw 70% approval IIRC. The immigration was a huge reason he was elected.

Just my $.02.......

 Many people cannot afford to live in the coastal Ca cities.  I have a friend that moved from San Diego CA to Michigan in the late 1990s.  He has indicated he wants to move back to San Diego but the cost would affect his quality of life.  He bought in Michigan when he moved there, but the property value is far lower than a similar purchase in San Diego would have achieved.  He probably could not buy a starter home for the value of his Michigan property that is fairly nice (on a pond and far nicer than a starter home in San Diego).

There is a reason more people choose to live in CA than any other state and it is not even that close.  However, informing others of all the reasons would be contrary to my desire to not encourage people to move to CA.

so CA $ucks.  There is no reason anyone should move to CA.

Best wishes

Look, we can split hairs all day long and argue "well by this metric it looks...." blah blah blah..... 

Here's the deal: 

One Hundred and eight seven THOUSAND!!!!!!! Spin spin SPIN away, that's still a TON of people. That literally a major city of homeless. 

To put this into context: 

CA has more than 20X the homeless MN has. 

And CA has only 6.8X the population of MN....... 

Facts....... 

So yes, to me, CA has a SIGNIFICANT amount more of homeless than what I am used to seeing, because IT DOES. 

And before we cry "weather, but MN is cold weather in winter":

California has 6.24X the homeless of Florida. 

Yet CA only has 1.7X the population of FL.

Fruit for thought. 

 I had to fact check this after your last statement about the CA population declining ended up being false due to only accounting for our-migration and not including immigration, and once again you’ve gotten the info mixed up. The actual estimate is that less than 25% of the nations homeless people live in California, not 51%. Big difference there, you more than doubled the percentage so yeah it’s just numbers but your numbers are wrong. I think where your 51% probably came from is that a large percentage of the homeless people in California sleep outdoors (unsheltered homeless people, a subset of the overall homeless population). Current estimates are that 45% of the countries UNSHELTERED homeless people live in CA, not overall homeless. That’s simply because they can sleep outside there compared to homeless people in colder climates who must sleep in shelters so they don’t freeze to death.

Homelessness is a big problem in CA but they are also doing more than any other state to address it and homelessness only increased 3% there last year compared to double digits in many other states. Again, it’s a nationwide systemic problem not just a CA problem. 

Of course there are few if any homeless in Encinitas or the average street corner throughout this huge county...but just go downtown and drive around. You people that don't see the huge number of homeless in Cali just do not want to see them because it hurts your narrative. CA has more than half of the nations homeless/unsheltered persons. 

I went to a Padres game just a few months ago (Sept) and was stunned at the large number of people laying around on the sidewalks (and the stench) in what is a fairly nice part of town. Compare that to Phoenix where I had been to a game just one month earlier. On a 5 block walk to get to Chase Field, there was exactly ONE possibly 'homeless person' and he was playing the guitar for everyone.

Are you saying the earthquake stuff is the reasoning for the timber construction vs masonry? 

But look at the commercial structures, there masonry are they not. 

I actually do a fair bit of commerce with the Amish on a somewhat regular basis. Everything they do is quality. But they are savvy business people too, some of the best negotiators I've ever meet. At least the Amish here.