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All Forum Posts by: Christopher McCarthy

Christopher McCarthy has started 1 posts and replied 5 times.

Originally posted by @Joe Homs:

@Christopher McCarthy my vote is to sell and move on.  You have done your numbers correctly and should only keep it if you were positive 300-$400 a month.

Good Investing...

Thanks Joe, I think you may be right. Appreciate the insight, especially coming from a local (I see you are listed as Mission Viejo. We are in RSM)

Originally posted by @Tyler Hungerford:

Hey Chris, your cashflow is awful at that complex. Take the money and run. Use that towards another investment that will actually pay you. HOA properties are tougher to keep because those rates go up every year, essentially killing potential cashflow opportunities. Unless you have a killer loan that is a very low payment, then it probably doesn't make sense to keep. I would take that money and put it towards a better property with 20-25% down. Plenty of duplexes in the Inland Empire that you could put that money towards and actually have a decent return on your investment.

Thanks Tyler, I think you are right. These responses have all been super helpful

Originally posted by @Evan Polaski:

@Christopher McCarthy, do you think your appreciation will continue?  That is not factored into your calculation, and most people here will say "don't count on appreciation".  I happen to agree with them, but real estate builds wealth because you can leverage against it and it historically appreciates over the long term.  

If it were me, I would sell.  The coastal markets seem to be effected by larger swings than middle America.  I think there are a lot of factors that are driving to increased demand right now, and those will change creating lower demand and lower prices.  Work from home will end and people will want to live closer to employment centers.  Interest rates will rise.

And you have Capex to handle over the long term. The HOA is well run now, but what happens in 5-10 years when some large items are requiring special assessments? When you do want to sell, or even just continue renting for top rents, kitchens need remodeled, flooring tastes change, etc. Hopefully appreciation will more than cover those costs, but if you bought in 2006/07 and needed to sell in 2010 through 2014, you likely would sell for a loss. But having $100k in hand and reinvested, can likely get your more than 1% cash on cash, however you need to account for some level of appreciation/depreciation to get a full comparison with other investments.

I'll try to keep this short, sweet, and to the point. My wife and I live in a small condo in Orange County, CA. We purchased it in 2014 for $320k. The last comp sold for $455 a couple weeks ago. We now have a family that is still growing, so we needed some more space. The condo is 900 sq ft, 2 bed 2 bath. We are in escrow now on a larger place about an hour away.

I was raised under the idea that real estate is a great wealth builder, and if you can keep your properties, keep them. However, when I run the numbers, I can't seem to convince myself that keeping it is the right play.

The numbers:

Market rent for our area: $2,200/mo

Principle and Interest: $927/mo

Taxes, Insurance, HOA: $687/mo

Estimated Vacancy, Repairs, and other misc items: $321/mo

Net cash flow after reporting income, write offs, and depreciation comes out to about $1,000 per year

$1,000 per year on about $100k in equity paid thus far is about a 1% cash on cash return. To me, that feels like my money is better invested elsewhere. One part of me says sell the property for a tax-free gain after the last year's RE craze and find an opportunity elsewhere that will yield better returns. The other part of me is saying we have a great property with a well-run HOA, in a great location that appreciates nicely and has no problem getting an array of renters. Once it's paid off, we see some arbitrage because there is no longer a debt service. That being said, there's less we can write off against the income, but we are still making better returns than we are today.

I'd love some advice or maybe a fresh perspective. I'd hate to regret selling the condo down the road, but I also like the idea of not being a landlord again (we have rented this place in the past and had a bad experience). Renters in CA are also very protected, and can be difficult to remove if a bad egg comes along.

I'll avoid any more rambling, and can answer any questions that arise. Thanks in advance for any insight.