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All Forum Posts by: Cheng Chu

Cheng Chu has started 6 posts and replied 21 times.

As a example, if you had 200K in cash, you could invest this in real estate with these 2 options.

Options 1: buy a house worth 200k in cash.  No mortgage.   Let's say you can cash flow 1200/month

Or

Option 2: buy 4 houses each worth 200K but using leverage, 75% LTV(50K down payment, 150K mortgage, 30 yrs loan at currently 7% interest rates)

let's say after PITI, you cash flow 0 under ideal circumstances(no major cap ex, no prolonged vacancies)

What is the better investment with higher returns long term?  I think it would depend on the location and whether you plan to hold for the long term or cash out at some point. 

decision making can be different in these 2 scenarios:

Scenario A(high appreciation/high rent growth area):  If your house appreciation + rent growth outpace 7%, perhaps option 2 might be the better choice and leverage may amplify your returns.  Although more house means more things that can potentially break and need repairs.  And in "hot markets", there's a risk of property prices going down and you run the risk of being "overleveraged" if vacancies go up.   

Scenario B(low appreciation/low rent growth area):  in this scenario, I think option 1 might be a better investment.  at current interest rates, it just doesn't make sense to leverage if you don't expense house prices to go up.  


Am I thinking about this correctly?  A lot of people say debt paydown is another benefit.  I think with 30 yr amortization, the paydown on principal is minimal in the first few years and I don't see much benefit.  If you are going to a hold house for 30 yrs, capex expenses also each up much of your cash flow as the houses get older.  

since we are on BP, I suspect more people will skew real estate.  For some people, RE is just a lot of work dealing with agents, tenants, and taxes/insurance.  Putting your money in an index fund and get your 8% return a year is simple and less stressful. 

Quote from @Collin Hays:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Collin Hays:

I just got off the phone with a self manager who paid $810K for his cabin in May of 2023 and is listing it soon for $650K.  His realtor advised him to get out now.


It's not a 1-off. Values are going to fall 50-60 percent from 2022 peak before we reach bottom.  I lived through this in 2008-2010.  I bought my first Smokies property in 2005, and by 2010, it was worth half what I paid.  The values will fall until they are a traditional multiple of annual rents - about 7X annual rents.

This time is NOT different.

As for agents, the most reliable agent in that region, Darlene Derosia, says that nothing is moving, regardless of the discount.  

Do you really think property values are going to fall 50-60% from peak?  asking prices are still high and 2008 was more like once a generation type of event.  

Post: STR analysis for Nashville, TN

Cheng ChuPosted
  • Posts 21
  • Votes 6

just curious if OP pulled the trigger and bought a STR

I'm an out of state investor looking at mckinney due to reported population growth. For property owners in this area, what have you seen in terms of supply and demand. I'm looking at SFH. How many bedrooms and what sq ft do you think has the highest occupancy in this area?

Quote from @Garrett Brown:

I'm just getting a temperature feel from all of the STR investors out there that are paying attention to new markets. I think identifying these markets that have a history of vacation rentals (so STR regulations are not worried about), near State or Regional Attractions (alot of national attractions may be priced out but not all), while also being affordable for the average STR investor. I am Texas based so may answers will skew more towards my region but I would leave to hear what are some other areas you may be paying attention to that isn't as popular as some of the main stays (Smokies, Joshua Tree, etc)

Mine right now are 

1. Broken Bow, Oklahoma

2. Lake Conroe, Texas

3. Hot Springs, Arkansas

Honorable Mention

Lake Waco, Texas

Lake Tawakoni, Texas

Savannah, Georgia 


 I own a cabin in broken bow.  I think the area is pretty saturated with cabins right now and not enough visitors to keep up with supply.   I would say it's way past the point of "up and coming".  

Quote from @Bruce Lynn:
Quote from @Cheng Chu:

how about prosper, Celina, and McKinney.  Has prices run up too much already?

It seems like the general trend of population growth is northern Dallas.

Prosper will be almost impossible to find a good rental.  Probably minimum price point really is about $1mil for Prosper with Prosper schools. Rent probably $5000/month or less.  Nice city.  Nice city to live in, although virtually no businesses right now.  It will come, but you will likely have to drive for shopping, eating, activities.   Every so often one of the older homes in the old city center will come up, and those are always worth a look, but it is pretty rare.

Celina also very nice place to live, but probably tougher for investors.  Most neighborhoods are newer with severe restrictions on rentals....same with Melissa and many places in Forney and Princeton, so you have to be super careful with that.  If they don't have them already, sometimes there are movements within HOA to implement them.  There can be exceptions, especially if you buy older homes or in non-HOA neighborhoods.  Just not many of those.

McKinney in my opinion just has too many rentals.  Today there are 500+ homes for rent in McKinney.  That's too many, especially now that school has started.  That's probably 4 months of inventory.  That does not include lots of apartments.   Nice city to live in.  Preferred areas have Princeton or Frisco schools, but then those homes are typically bigger, and more expensive and ROI normally super low.

If you are looking at these cities, I would look further north.  Weston, Gunter, Denison, Howe, Van Alstyne, but especially Sherman.  Probably less risk in Sherman, more demand drivers.  None of the other cities have any demand drivers for the most part.

 What demand drivers are in Sherman?  How much are people willing to drive to get to work every day.  For me, I can’t imagine more than 40 min.

how about prosper, Celina, and McKinney.  Has prices run up too much already?

It seems like the general trend of population growth is northern Dallas.

I'm an out of state investor who frequents dallas area.  How is the RE market currently?

What suburbs of dallas would you look into investing that has strong job grow, but prices are not super high.

I think prices of properties are still high.  Would it be cheaper to build?  Does anyone know the going rate for price/sq ft to construct a beach house?